For his sake, let's hope it's the former because a game for Canterbury against Southland in Christchurch is likely to be much easier on his ageing body than a test against Los Pumas in Buenos Aires followed by a long trip to Johannesburg and a test against the Springboks.
Carter, as we know, is a red flag athlete, a player who at 32 has had more than his fair share of injuries. A broken leg is a freak injury, but that Achilles problem he sustained in his 100th test at Twickenham last November, and for which he needed surgery, was the continuation of a worrying trend. The soft tissue problems - hamstring, calf, Achilles - have been steadily mounting. There should be no hurry to get him back for the All Blacks in a tournament which could be all but over by the weekend.
Aaron Cruden now has such a sureness of touch that he deserves an extended run at No10. So does Beauden Barrett, who made a good fist of his first start there in Napier last Saturday, but he is likely to have to be satisfied with his "back-up to the back-up" lot for a while yet.
The end-game of course must be next year's World Cup, and next Thursday marks the one-year-to-go mark. The All Blacks' coaches must have a strategy around getting Carter to that competition, where his experience could be crucial, and it will involve some careful handling. Who knows, further injuries, or a lack of form, might relegate Carter behind Cruden by that stage, but the selectors will want to keep their options open, and Carter, the world test points scoring record holder, deserves that.
The skill level displayed in last Saturday's Auckland v Wellington ITM Cup match at Eden Park, which the home team won 31-30 after trailing 6-30 at the break, suggests there has never been a bigger gap between that competition and the top level. A low-key run-out against Southland followed by another against Tasman could be just the thing to get Carter right for perhaps a return to the All Blacks in the "dead" Bledisloe Cup rubber in Brisbane on October 18.
Carter's experience means he can reach top speed on a diet of limited rugby; what he doesn't need is another injury.
- By Patrick McKendry of APNZ