Is Dan done?
It has been quite some career Dan Carter has had. For a decade he was considered the world's best first five-eighth by many, even the world's best back by others. His all-round game is something that is rarely seen. Defensively he was safe and goes looking for tackles to make. On attack he was explosive, capable of summing up a situation and breaking the line, while also capable of putting away his outsides. His kicking game became outstanding too, to the point where he was comfortable controlling a game.
As recently as last year we saw these traits in Carter. But we have not seen them this year, he has hardly been on the field to show them. When he has played he has been described as rusty. But is it rust, or just the level he is at now? All of those injuries have to take their toll and he has not been on the field long enough to prove that he remains better than the other options at in the No 10 jersey.
There is probably not a New Zealander who does not want to see Carter at next year's World Cup. But we also want to see him there by merit, not just as a token gesture to a great of the game. The next Super Rugby campaign will be huge for Carter to prove whether he indeed is still up to playing for the All Blacks.
Who is the best option at first five-eighth?
If there were not other quality options at first five-eighth, the Carter issue would not be so contentious. But with Aaron Cruden, Beauden Barrett and Colin Slade, there are three others who can more than adequately do the job when they are on their game. So who should they go with?
Carter is the obvious option if he is fit and proves to still be up to the required standard. But it may be time to look elsewhere. Cruden seems the likely candidate. His running game is the best of the three, he is capable of taking the line on himself and distributing well, while also possessing a solid kicking game that has come on in the past three years. He has been off-form of late and his goal kicking has not been flash, but he has a Super Rugby campaign to play himself back into form.
Barrett provides a good option of the bench, but not as a starter. He is a player whose pace makes him threatening running at a tiring defence once the game has loosened up. Ideally you would bring him on for the last twenty or so minutes and allow him to wreak havoc. While he is improving in his option taking, he is not yet a reliable option to control a game.
Then there is Slade. So often overlooked, yet at his very best is arguably as good as any of those mentioned above. That is the problem with Slade though: he is either very good or very bad. He has taken his chance in the black jersey this year though and was the most reliable first five-eighth of the end-of-year tour. His goal kicking was the best of the lot and he remains the best in the country at kicking with both feet in general play. On attack he can create and can slot in and be tidy where needed too.
In contrast to four years ago, it is good to have so many options.
Will Andy Ellis get a recall?
Andy Ellis has been the unluckiest player in New Zealand rugby over the past three years. After a great World Cup, he was dropped from the All Blacks while in career-best form with the Crusaders in 2012. It was not even as if it had anything to do with his playing ability. He was just seen as being too old. It was a strange explanation, particularly when you look at others who were chosen, notably Piri Weepu. Three years later Ellis still looks to be in the top two halfbacks in the country and with no obvious contender for Aaron Smith's backup emerging, he may be due a recall upon his return to New Zealand.
TJ Perenara is a solid player, but he takes too long organizing play at the back of the ruck, when he needs to be delivering quicker ball to capitalize on a tiring defence, coming on at the end of the game. Ellis has the intelligence, the kicking game and a good pass, three things that can never be overlooked in a halfback.
Will they persist with Sonny Bill Williams?
After an outstanding return to rugby union against the USA, Sonny Bill Williams has been average on the European-leg of the All Blacks' end-of-year tour. He was solid against England, and was all but anonymous bar a handful of mistakes against Wales. There are five midfielders in this squad and that is likely to be trimmed to four for the World Cup. Conrad Smith will be one and Ma'a Nonu another. It would be hard to drop Ryan Crotty based on form, same with Malakai Fekitoa. On the other hand, Williams had hardly done anything out of the ordinary, other than a couple of offloads. That is not to say he will not be there. But he will have to up his game over the next eight months.
Can they win the World Cup?
Rightly or wrongly, in many people's eyes it will be whether the All Blacks defend the World Cup that will define whether 2015, or indeed the past four years, is a success. Winning it will be no easy task either. We all saw how hard it was to win at home in 2011. Next year they will have to travel to England and do it over there. The run in is not an easy one either.
They should top their pool, but after that they will run into either Ireland or France in Cardiff. Ireland have been top performers this season - they lost just one game in 2014 and could be a dark horse. However, if the Irish top their pool, it will be the French the All Blacks will meet and you never know what you are going to get with them, particularly in Cardiff and all.
South Africa naturally pose a threat with their hugely physical game and dangerous backline. That they beat the All Blacks this year shows that they are able to do it and a likely semifinal meeting between the two makes that game a defining one.
England, Australia and Wales are all in the same pool and one will not make it out. But at the same time, each is capable of winning the whole thing. England are tenacious, will grind out a win and be tough to beat at home. Australia can turn it on when they need to and are capable of randomly playing well, even while in the middle of a bad stretch.
The Welsh on the other hand possess a dangerous backline, with a very good defensive forward pack in front of them. They will be a tough nut to crack, although they may struggle to win consistently enough to claim a title.
The point is though, those are six teams who all act as genuine threats to the All Blacks' World Cup campaign. You cannot take anything for granted. On the flipside, while they all possess dangers, no other team has developed the ability to win like the All Blacks. They are at a stage where they do not always play well, but more often than not they find a way to get the job done. Whether this will get the ultimate job done, well that is the ultimate question to ponder ahead of next year.
