Rugby: Who makes a World Cup squad on Super 15 form?

Ben Smith should be the the starting fullback for the All Blacks at the World Cup, says Jeff...
Ben Smith should be the the starting fullback for the All Blacks at the World Cup, says Jeff Cheshire. Photo Getty

ODT Online rugby writer Jeff Cheshire looks ahead to the World Cup and suggests a posible All Black squad for the tournament, based on players' Super Rugby form so far.

Outside backs

Ben Smith is light years ahead of the next best fullback and will be a shoo-in. His ability in the high ball is now at least as good as that of Israel Dagg's and his ability to counterattack is far superior, not to mention he is tough on defence. If he is not the starting fullback something is wrong. Dagg himself probably does not win selection off form, but it would be a surprise if he is not chosen - they have persisted with him for this long.

Julian Savea is another shoo-in; big, fast, strong and skilful, he keeps getting better and always finds a way to impact the game. There have been suggestions Cory Jane is past his best and while he may not be as good as he was a few years ago, he is as reliable a wing as New Zealand has.

Charles Piutau went out of favour when he signed his deal to play overseas, but he has proven himself at international level. His Super Rugby form has been mixed, but it is hard for an outside back to look good in a team playing so poorly. You would think all five men are likely to make it, if they take five outside backs. The restriction on numbers could see them use a first five-eighth as a utility and only take four specialists. This might be the best option and could hurt Piutau's chances if there is ill-feeling towards him.

Midfielders

Conrad Smith just keeps on keeping on, the most reliable centre in world rugby with his high work-rate and level of accuracy. He will be paired with Ma'a Nonu, who is having his best Super Rugby season in many years, defensively making a big impact, along with the occasional strong run. Malakai Fekitoa is a guarantee now too, having gotten even better after a breakout year in 2014. His defence is of the highest class, while he is probably the most destructive ball running midfielder in the world and would start for any other team.

Whether they take a fourth midfielder is up in the air. Ben Smith and Charles Piutau are both capable of filling in if necessary, but we really do not want it to come to this. Fullbacks have not gone well at centre in the past at World Cups, so this really would only be a last-resort temporary injury cover if required. A replacement could be called in if a permanent replacement was needed. This would allow them to take three first five-eighths and five outside backs.

The other option would be to use either Beauden Barrett or Colin Slade as a utility and drop either Jane, Piutau or Dagg. If they take that approach, Ryan Crotty and Sonny Bill Williams will be the next cabs of the rank. Williams has done little, other than the occasional flash of brilliance, to justify selection. Crotty meanwhile has been solid and has battled away in a Crusaders team which has lacked a direct runner. He would fit in to the All Black set-up better where he could run his good angles off the strong ball carriers and pick the gaps that just are not there for the Crusaders. That said, it will not be a surprise if they pick Williams, regardless of how he is playing.

First five-eighth

It is likely the All Blacks will take three first five-eighths to this World Cup, given three of their main options have utility value anyway. Aaron Cruden would have been a certainty, so his injury is disappointing, but there is depth to cover for him. It would be a surprise if Beauden Barrett did not go, the pivot for the best team in Super Rugby so far this year. His running game, speed and ability to take a gap is as good as any, while his kicking game continues to improve. Along with that, he offers cover at fullback and on the wing, which could dictate other selections.

There are few people who would not want to see Dan Carter get through a World Cup as the No. 1 option in the 10 jersey, but are his recent performances warranting it? We have not seen top form from him since 2012 and he needs to prove that he is still capable of playing to a high level. With Cruden out of the picture though it is hard to see him being passed over, he still brings experience and top-notch skill set.

Colin Slade, meanwhile, was the best first five-eighth on last year's end of year tour and seems to have regained his confidence, showing a slick all round game. It would be tough to take Carter over him, even if Carter would bring valuable experience to the jersey. Lima Sopoaga has been playing well and his chances received a boost this week. He brings flair and creativity, along with a handy boot.

Whether this would translate to test level is unproven and his lack of experience in the international arena will count against him. Should someone else go down, he surely will be the next go-to.

Halfback

Aaron Smith is the first-choice and that is virtually unanimous now. His fast pass and dangerous running have propelled him to become the world's best No. 9. After him it becomes less clear.

Tawera Kerr-Barlow will return in a few months, but will have had little rugby in him and there were still plenty of question marks surrounding his game anyway. TJ Perenara lacks a yard of pace and can be a bit slow to the ruck at times, but he brings strength and is an organising halfback in the Piri Weepu mould. It would be a surprise if he is not given one of the spots.

The first back-up to Smith though should be Andy Ellis, a man who should have been an All Black right through from the last World Cup. After 2011 the selectors seemed to decide he would not still be around playing good rugby by 2015 so cast him aside and have looked elsewhere ever since. For two years he was the top performing halfback in New Zealand and for the next two he was the second-best. Yet you got the feeling that the selectors just did not want to admit they got it wrong. He is the most intelligent of the halfbacks on offer, has a good pass, kicks well and can run too. It is time for the selectors to swallow their pride and restore Ellis to the side.

Loose forwards

Richie McCaw has been out of sorts for the Crusaders, but he has not been peaking until later in the season in recent years anyway. You can bet your bottom dollar he will be the captain, provided he is fit, and his toughness and intelligence will make him one of the All Blacks' best players.

Kieran Read is a must-have too, a No. 8 capable of playing both the physical game in the tight and the ranging game in the loose. Jerome Kaino has been a beast in an awful Blues outfit and always gives go-forward, while Liam Messam's relentlessness and strength on defence puts him not far behind. Sam Cane will likely get the fifth spot, as both Kaino and Messam can cover for Read and there is always the chance that McCaw might not last the tournament. Cane is probably the fastest openside flanker in the game, particularly off first phase ball, while he reads the game well in committing to the breakdown and linking out wider. The limit on players means there is no spot for Victor Vito or Steven Luatua.

Locks

Obviously Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick will be the first-choice combo. Both are mobile and skilful, yet physical and tough at the same time. Jeremy Thrush fought hard in his outings last year and had an impressive work rate on defence which should see him win the back-ups jersey. There are a handful of players fighting for the final spot, but Patrick Tuipulotu is probably the most likely.

Luke Romano had a few injury issues and has not quite recaptured his bruising form, while Dominic Bird has never looked like anything more than a big body. Other unlikely bolters would be the in-form James Broadhurt and prospect Tom Franklin. Broadhurst is probably a bit similar to Thrush, while Franklin is still a year or two off. Tuipulotu makes an impact in contact, is a strong ball carrier and a hard hitter on defence. He provides contrast to the hard workers and can add some spark, so in the interests of not having too much of the same, he should get the nod.

Props

Owen Franks and Charlie Faumuina will be the two tight-heads, both extremely mobile props capable of bringing physicality and solid scrummaging games. Loosehead prop is a bit more of an issue. Tony Woodcock hardly makes an impact around the field these days, but he brings experience and you know he is reliable at set-piece, which is so important for a front-rower. Wyatt Crockett will likely go too, but he has never really made the same impact on the international stage as he has in Super Rugby. He is a player who has, unfortunately, gained a reputation for scrummaging deficiencies and can tend to be picked on by referees, as they are looking for things he does wrong.

That is not a good thing, regardless of whether he is better or worse than the other options. You cannot fault his work rate though, as he gets around the field at a reasonable clip. Ben Franks will be a popular pick with many pundits, but he has done little for a while now and seemed to be more of a liability than a help coming off the bench last year, lacking discipline in his effort to make an impact.

Joe Moody could be a better option, a reasonable scrummager who has looked quite good in his appearances for the All Blacks thus far. If he played for someone other than the Crusaders, he would no doubt be seen as a far greater chance as his talents would be on a show on a more consistent basis.

Hooker

Dane Coles really came on last year, progressing from a fast player who was good in the loose, to a player who works hard in close and makes plenty of tackles. His lineout throwing is probably the best of the hookers too. Keven Mealamu will most likely go, although that says more about New Zealand's depth at hooker than his enduring form. He does not get around as quickly as he did a few years ago, while he has hardly been in vintage form for the All Blacks, or even the Blues, in recent years. His experience, coupled with the fact that there are no better options, will see him chosen.

This leaves one final spot, possibly the hardest to fill in the entire squad. Hika Elliot is possibly the best option. He has done well to come back from a serious neck injury and is in good form with the Chiefs. A combative, physical player, Elliot also brings test experience. Elsewhere Liam Coltman and Ash Dixon are both playing the best rugby of their lives, getting through plenty of work in a physical manner, while Nathan Harris will suffer from a lack of game time.

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