Last chance for ABs to impress before World Cup

Colin Slade gets a pass away during the All Blacks' Captain's Run at Eden Park in Auckland today....
Colin Slade gets a pass away during the All Blacks' Captain's Run at Eden Park in Auckland today. Photo Getty

ODT Online rugby writer Jeff Cheshire looks at the All Blacks' potential World Cup squad make-up and who is in need of a big performance ahead of their final hit-out - against Australia tomorrow night - before the tournament.

Outside backs

If we use the logic that four specialist outside backs will be taken, with one of the utility first fives providing cover, then it would seem there is one spot up for grabs here. Ben Smith is a no-brainer and should be the starting fullback. While he will not let you down on the wing, his vision, counterattacking threat and defensive abilities are all wasted there and he is better placed at the back.

Julian Savea will be the left wing, his destructive running game being the best in the world, while his kick-chase and ball skills allow him to provide other dimensions. Charles Piutau must be there too and will likely be the starting right winger, another who poses a significant threat with ball in hand while having a high work rate and safe pair of hands.

Israel Dagg still has not convinced he can cut a team to pieces like he could four years ago and his defence is lacking, while Cory Jane simply has not played enough rugby. After Nehe Milner-Skudder's dream debut where he was dangerous every time he touched the ball, it would be hard to not take him as the fourth player, with Piutau and one of the utilities covering fullback if necessary.

Waisake Naholo is a wildcard, but if Milner-Skudder puts in another strong performance, it would be hard to drop him.

Midfield

Ma'a Nonu and Conrad Smith are both certainties to go. Together they form a brick-wall on defence and complement each other well on attack. At 12 you have Nonu, so dangerous when he is stepping as he takes it to the line, while outside him you have Smith running his great lines and providing a deft pair of hands to distribute to the outside backs. They might not be quite where they were four years ago, but they are still as good a pairing as any in the world.

The other two spots are not as clear. Malakai Fekitoa should be one. He brings a destructive running game, while also offering an intelligent defensive mindset. This allows him to apply pressure through reading the attack and knowing when to rush up, while also working hard and often running a long way across the park to get into a position he can do this from.

Sonny Bill Williams and Ryan Crotty will compete for the last spot. It would not be a surprise if Williams is picked, but Crotty has shown more strings to his bow over the past few years. Williams has not played enough good rugby against top teams to prove that he should displace an option that was working well. His decision-making is not flash and he has a tendency to go missing, or to drift in and out of games. Crotty is not likely to break a game open, but he is reliable and does the right things at the right times.

First five

There has not been a position more heavily debated ahead of this World Cup than the first five.

Losing Aaron Cruden remains a blow, particularly with the current indifferent form of Dan Carter and Beauden Barrett. Both of those men should go, however. Barrett provides cover at fullback and brings with him a turn of pace and eye for a gap that makes him dangerous running. It is hard to see Carter not going too, although whether he starts is another question. If you are going to pick him for his experience and ability to control a game, then he needs to start doing that and adapting his decision-making to the situation at hand.

Lima Sopoaga adds spark and a reliable kicking game. His performance against the Springboks was the best by an All Black No 10 this year and he must be considered the form first five in the country. Then you have Colin Slade, a good distributor of the ball who can put players into holes and kicks well off both feet. He played well for the Crusaders this year and brings utility value too. That said, it is going to be hard for him to break through given the reluctance to play him at the pivot for the All Blacks. This weekend could be his chance to shine.

Halfback

Aaron Smith has not played his best rugby over the past two weeks, but he is still miles ahead of the next best halfback. His speed to the ruck, crisp, flat, wide pass and dangerous sniping game fit the All Blacks' style of play well and when he is at his best, he can be the most influential player on the park. Backing him up will be TJ Perenara, perhaps not quite the snappy player Smith is, but certainly is one of the stronger halfbacks in the world and is generally fairly measured.

The third halfback, and you do need a third, is less obvious. Tawera Kerr-Barlow has had such little rugby over the past year that it would be risky to throw him into the mix. Andy Ellis was not exactly convincing against Samoa, although he was far from the only one. He brings with him experience and a cool head though and given he has actually been playing this year, might be the best option.

Loose forwards

Richie McCaw, Kieran Read, Jerome Kaino, and Sam Cane will all go, with likely one, or possibly two, spots up for grabs. McCaw is still one of the most influential players around, his physicality, ability to read a game to cover for other's mistakes and work rate to just keep getting back up is as valuable as ever. Read can play the physical game in tight, while also providing danger ranging in the loose, while acting as a reliable lineout option. Kaino is not quite the beast he was in 2011, but still works hard and adds plenty of grunt, while Cane gives you cover at openside if need be, a player who is fast around the park, tackles well and has a strong linking game.

The final spot looked set to be Liam Messam's until yesterday. Now he must be having flashbacks to 2011, with Victor Vito getting the nod this weekend. Really it comes down to whether you want an explosive ball runner or relentless worker. If Vito plays well tomorrow night though, he could sneak in.

Indeed, that he is being played suggests that this is something of a trial match for him. The other option could be to take both and only take three locks, using Kaino as cover.

Locks

Brodie Retallick and Sam Whitelock are as good as any locks in the world and will be the starting duo for the All Blacks. Between them they bring physicality, mobility and a work rate that makes them so valuable for this team. Jeremy Thrush has to be one of the back-ups, he got better and better last year and is the third best option despite seeing little game time of late. Luke Romano has not done a lot to convince that he is up to the standard of a world class lock at the moment, while James Broadhurst has hardly been given a chance to prove himself. With neither getting a run this weekend, it is anyone's guess who the fourth lock will be.

The experiment with using two loose forwards on the bench tomorrow night could be an indication that only three locks will be taken and six loosies. It might be safer to go with four locks though, as experiments have not been favourable to the All Black at previous World Cups.

Props

Six months ago it was hooker that seemed to be the big issue, but you could lump the propping stocks in there too. There just are not that many props playing well. Tony Woodcock has all the experience in the world, but he really lacks impact around the park. Ben Franks has done little to justify selection over the past three years and seems to give away penalties whenever he comes on, while brother Owen is not providing the spark he was a few years ago.

Nepo Laulala has impressed, getting around the field well, making his tackles and proving solid in the scrum. Wyatt Crockett gets around the field well and provided he is going okay in the scrums, should start at loosehead. With Charlie Faumuina injured, it is unlikely he will get a look in having played such little rugby and it really is too late to bring anyone new in. So looks like we will have to hope the current group can play themselves into some form.

Hooker

Dane Coles will start, bringing speed around the field and a handy running game, while Codie Taylor has done similar things and should get the role of back-up. Keven Mealamu will likely go as the third hooker, again you need three, and he will provide experienced cover if needed. Pretty simple really, no one else has featured and Hika Elliot would very much be a long shot.

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