Currency sensitivity still holding interest

Global currency movements are still intriguing observers as the slightest alteration to a forecast or reported missed expectations changes the value of the United States dollar and the currencies it trades against.

Yesterday, the US dollar weakened against other major currencies after a March retail sales report showed cautious consumer spending in the economy.

US retail sales rebounded from a three-month slump in March but the 0.9% gain was weaker than estimated.

Excluding auto sales, retail sales rose only 0.4% instead of the 0.7% expected.

For the first time in six trading days, there was a broad-based weakness in the US dollar.

Investors needed a reason to take profits on their long dollar trades and yesterday's softer retail data in the US gave them the opportunity.

The New Zealand dollar rose nearly US1c, touching a recent high of US75.52c.

Economists said the market was disappointed in the March retail sales, which, at face value, reduced the probability of the Federal Reserve starting a rate-lifting cycle in June.

ANZ senior FX strategist Sam Tuck said the New Zealand-US dollar cross leapt back into life, confirming that part of the fate of New Zealand exporters and farm outlooks for 2015-16 would be driven by the US data flow and the Fed.

The Australian dollar was also trading higher against the US currency after the retail report.

BK Asset Management managing director Kathy Lien said the recovery in spending should only harden the Fed's decision to increase its interest rate.

''We have long argued a rate hike will happen in September versus June and the latest report reinforces that view,'' she said.

BNZ currency strategist Raiko Shareef said the surprisingly dovish tone of the Fed's open market committee meeting and the subsequent abysmal US labour market report for March gave US dollar bulls a reason to rethink their conviction.

''Certainly, latecomers to the dollar bandwagon ... have exhibited nervousness. But it remains clear the broader inclination to own US dollars has not been broken.''

The BNZ remained ''constructive'' on the US dollar, even with the risk of a later start to a Fed tightening cycle than June.

The divergence in monetary policy stances on both sides of the Atlantic would continue to drive US dollar strength and that might soon be complemented by an upgrade to Japan's monetary easing programme, he said.

''We believe it will take only a moderate improvement in the US data tone to once again get the market excited about the prospect of US dollar appreciation.

''With expectations so low, and an improvement likely from a weather-impaired first quarter, this should happen over the coming months.''

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