The financial impacts of the swine flu epidemic may pose a threat to any "green shoot" of recovery from the global economic crisis, says Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard.
"It looks likely this will impact the economy by hitting staffing, through sickness, childcare and precautionary behaviour," he said. "If the incidence is severe, it would delay recovery."
Up to 30 percent of the population was expected to contract the swine flu, though health officials were still pushing containment at the border and stamping out clusters of infection in an effort to flatten the epidemic peak.
But some critics of the containment efforts - which have seen businesses and schools shut down as people are sent home - have said that continued application of the "quarantine model" could lead to closures of offices, shops and schools, and a big impact on the economy.
Canterbury Employers Chamber of Commerce chief executive Peter Townsend predicted no business will avoid the impact of the swine flu outbreak.
Christchurch factory Sea Products Ltd closed on Tuesday to help prevent the spread of the virus, after two workers caught swine flu. The factory's 100 workers were given Tamiflu and told to return to work on Friday.
Mr Townsend said the virus could not have come at a worse time for the recession-hit economy.
There was likely to also be a knock-on effect in the hospitality industry if people began to avoid socialising.
BNZ chief economist Tony Alexander also predicted the epidemic would dent the economic recovery.
"This will occur as either employees or small business owners lose income because people have to take time off sick," he said.
"People will become less willing to go to the shops because of the risk of contracting the illness.
"Recreational activities along with cafes and restaurants will suffer badly."
People running businesses needed to focus on cashflows and where possible to build up reserves, he said.
Householders should also prepare so they could cope with a seven-day isolation, such as stocking up on basic food items.
People should also keep in mind preparing their homes for the potential for a second wave of the swine flu, which could have more serious symptoms, Mr Alexander said.
