Consumers unfazed by house prices and new Govt

Sharon Zollner.
Sharon Zollner.
Consumers appear to be relaxed in the face of a cooler housing market and a change of government, the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence survey indicates.

However, ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said yesterday it seemed a degree of wariness was starting to creep into forward-looking responses.

The index eased from 123.7 in November to 121 in December, still above historical averages but now eight points off the September high.

The futures condition index fell 2.2 points to 120.9.

''Consumer confidence is holding up remarkably well in the face of a slower housing market and increased uncertainty. We suspect the strong labour market has much to do with it.''

There was belief the economy was experiencing a lull as several of the growth drivers all ran out of puff at the same time, weighing on uncertainty, Ms Zollner said.

Consumers continued to feel happy about their financial situation, she said. A net 14% felt financially better off than a year ago, continuing a stable trend seen in the past 12 months.

There was more caution about the year ahead as a net 28% of consumers expected to be better off financially this time next year, the lowest reading since August 2017.

A net 32% said it was a good time to buy a major household item. Even so, durable spending had softened lately, due to fewer house sales, Ms Zollner said.

Perceptions regarding the economic outlook fell again. After three consecutive monthly falls, net optimism at 13 was well off its September high of 30. The five-year outlook dipped from a net 23 to 22.

Confidence fell most sharply in Auckland and Canterbury and they were the most pessimistic of regions. Confidence was highest in Wellington.

National house price expectations bounced from 1.5% to 2.4% but remained at low levels, she said. Inflation expectations continued to range between 3% and 4%.

The confidence composite gauge, which combines business and consumer sentiment and covers both the production and spending sides of the economy, had taken a hit, due mostly to the fall in business confidence.

''We believe the strong terms of trade and solid household income growth will carry the economy through. Barring a negative hit from offshore, which, to be fair, tends to be New Zealand's fate once a decade or so, this business cycle has plenty of legs to it.''

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