Financial markets also seemed to draw the conclusion Mrs Clinton won the debate with US shares rising yesterday following Tuesday's debate and the Mexican peso strengthening, Craigs broker Chris Timms said.
Mexico would be a key loser from a Trump victory.
''However, with two more debates and plenty of campaign theatrics to come, we shouldn't underestimate Trump's chances. The anti-establishment undercurrent that would rather take a risk on Trump than continue under the status quo is strong.''
If Mr Trump did win, there were a few things financial markets and investors could expect, Mr Timms said.
Mr Trump was not a big fan of the Federal Reserve, chairwoman Janet Yellen or her deputy Stanley Fischer. He thought the Fed was acting irresponsibly and politically by keeping interest rates as low as they were. Dr Yellen and Mr Fischer might not last long under Mr Trump and new appointments could be inclined to increase interest rates at a faster pace.
Growth in America could improve. Mr Trump wanted to cut taxes and increase spending on defence and infrastructure.
''This fiscal stimulus would likely increase US economic growth in the short-term at least,'' Mr Timms said.
The growth would come at the expense of other parts of the world, such as China and the emerging markets.
The combination of higher rates and stronger economic growth would likely mean the US dollar rallying against most other currencies, including New Zealand, Mr Timms said.
The US was New Zealand's fourth-largest export market, taking nearly 12% of the country's goods and services. As a result, New Zealand should see some benefits from a stronger US economy.
''We're not likely to be in the firing line for Trump's anti-trade policies as much as others but we might need to give up on the Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal getting approved.''
The key aspect of the Trump agenda was protectionism, the opposite of globalisation and free trade, Mr Timms said.
Mr Trump wanted to bring manufacturing back to the US, impose hefty tariffs on Chinese and Mexican imports and become much more insulated from the rest of the world. US companies, with mainly domestic customers, would receive the benefits but multinationals doing business across borders would not.
Markets would react in the same way they did for Brexit. Shares would fall, higher-risk currencies would be sold off and safe-haven assets like gold would rise.
Before too long, a rebound was likely as some policies were interpreted as being better for growth and if it became clear the checks and balances in Congress would keep Mr Trump from doing anything outlandish, Mr Timms said.
