The latest Stats NZ figures show the estimated population of Otago and Southland is continuing to grow, but Dunedin’s has declined over the past year.
Although the drop is ‘‘minimal’’ — and the first since 2001 — Dunedin Mayor Sophie Barker is concerned it may be the start of a longer-term trend.
Across the Waitaki District, Central Otago District, Queenstown Lakes District, Clutha District, Southland District and Invercargill City Councils, all had modest population increases over the past year, and the Gore District Council remained steady on 12,950.
Nationally, the estimated resident population of New Zealand increased from 5,290,000 to 5,324,700.
However, Dunedin’s estimated population dropped by 100, from 132,900 in 2024, to 132,800 in 2025.
Former Massey University demographer Distinguished Professor Emeritus Paul Spoonley said the drop in Dunedin’s estimated population was due to two issues: the city had recorded more deaths than births over the past four years and
the city was receiving fewer migrants.
‘‘What’s interesting about Dunedin is you’re gaining people from other parts of New Zealand, but the other two factors are both in negative territory,’’ Prof Spoonley said.
‘‘So it’s a combination of that international migration and natural increase.’’
He believed Dunedin was beginning to ‘‘echo a story’’ that was increasing around New Zealand.
‘‘That is either the population is stagnating — so very little growth, if any — or we are having population decline.
‘‘Dunedin’s the largest settlement that is experiencing that, but a whole lot of regions like Hawke’s Bay and Nelson have also flipped over into population decline in the last year,’’ Prof Spoonley said.
Ms Barker said the figures were concerning because if the city’s population continued to decline, it would have an impact on the local economy, hospital services and other central government services.
‘‘I think it’s always been a challenge — it’s well known that we’ve got an ageing population and also a slightly transitory population with our students, which always has an effect on people living here.’’
She said the city needed to focus on being ‘‘attractive’’ to people in their 20s, 30s and 40s, especially those with families.
‘‘We need to create the jobs to attract those younger people to our city, and get the engines humming for us.
‘‘Have we got the opportunities in our city?
‘‘We do need to focus on making sure that we’ve got resilient population growth,’’ Ms Barker said.
