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Historian and left leaning political commentator Chris Trotter told the AM Show this morning he believed there was only a small chance of Labour forming a government and said Ms Ardern knew that by looking at the figures.
"She knows she's lost - 35, 36% is not enough," he said. "Maybe the specials will bump them up to 37, maybe even 38..."
Mr Trotter conceded Labour and Greens could gain votes once the remaining 15% of special votes were counted - but questioned whether it would be enough.
"Well there's 15% of the vote and most of those will be students who piled into the booths in the last couple of days I would say, and you know the Greens and Labour are going to get a good share of that. But whether it's enough to materially change things I don't know."
Mr Trotter told the AM Show's panel that Labour had made a "remarkable recovery" from a "catastrophic base". He had previously spoken out about Ms Ardern rolling Andrew Little as leader before he resigned on his own back.
Mr Trotter added that in the past Mr Peters had rejected offers to form a government with three parties because he thought it was too many. MrPeters also has a history of backing the party who had the most votes.
But he still did not think it was enough to go against the "powerful" 46% of people who voted for National.
"Look at who you would be denying if you went with Labour and the Greens assuming you are Winston. Because these just aren't any 46% these are the most powerful people in the country.
"These are the people who owns things, the people who run things, the people who say things and expect people to do things and pretty damn quickly. To take 46% and say sorry were going to ignore you - that's a pretty big thing to do."