There is a high chance a tropical cyclone could hit the country sometime over the next few months, a report released by the national climate centre said today.
Niwa's climate outlook for January, February and March shows sea temperatures are expected to be warmer than usual in the Tasman Sea to the west and south of the country -- but near normal to the east of the North Island.
It also points to a high probability that there may be some tropical weather systems heading down under soon.
"New Zealand has a slightly elevated chance of having an ex-tropical system coming within 550km of the country during the 2014-15 Tropical Cyclone season."
The outlook for tropical cyclones shows that the risk for New Zealand will be highest around February through to April.
Niwa's outlook says that international guidance shows the chance for weak El Nino conditions between January, February and March stood at a 70 per cent chance of happening.
The El Nino conditions can mean heavy rain and tropical weather.
This month is expected to bring warmer than usual temperatures -- with a 45 per cent chance of above normal temperature ranges in the west of the South Island and between 35-40 per cent chance of near normal or above in other parts of the country.
Soil moisture levels are "most likely" to be below normal in the east of the South Island, while river flows have a 50 per cent chance of being below the usual flow in that part of the country.
In terms of rainfall, there is up to a 40 per cent chance of this being near-normal or above normal in parts of the North Island.
Most of the South Island is thought to be in for near-normal or below normal rainfall (40 per cent chance), while near-normal rainfalls are expected in regions at the top of the South Island.
- Vaimoana Tapaleao of the New Zealand Herald
