Labour has almost halved National's lead in the latest Herald DigiPoll survey after an intense political battle between the two parties in election year.
National has fallen 4.6 percentage points in a month memorable for slip-ups and lacklustre performances by leader John Key. But the party is still ahead, with the support of 49.9% of decided voters, and could still govern alone with 63 MPs.
Labour's fightback has seen it improve 2.8 points to 39.3% in a month of carefully designed publicity hits for the Government, including a snap announcement to try to keep strategic assets like Auckland International Airport.
The gap between the two big parties is now 10.6 percentage points, compared with the 18-point-lead gulf National had on Labour early this month.
Prime Minister Helen Clark and Mr Key are now virtually neck and neck as preferred prime minister after a small rise by her and a small dip by him. He is preferred by 45.9% of decided voters and Miss Clark by 45.6%.
New Zealand First leader Winston Peters is up marginally to 3.9%, but his party has fallen to 1.1%.
Without an electorate seat, the Greens and New Zealand First would not make it back to Parliament, based on the poll. The Greens are on 3.9% (down 0.5); New Zealand First 1.1% (down 1); the Maori Party 3.7% (up 2.2); United Future 0 (down 0.4); and Act New Zealand 1.1% (up 0.7).
Registering for the first time is the party of former United Future MP Gordon Copeland, the Kiwi Party, with 0.4%.
Assuming party leaders keep their electorate seats, National would have 63 seats, Labour 50, the Maori Party 5, and one each for Act, the Progressives and United Future.
The Maori Party party vote has picked up to the extent that it would be entitled to five MPs, more than the four it has now. The only party with an overhang is Jim Anderton's Progressives, which would take the House to 121 seats.
The poll of 750 respondents was conducted between March 6 and 27 and has a margin of error of 3.6%. The percentage of undecided voters was 10.9%.
