National consolidates its lead in poll

National consolidated its commanding lead in the final weeks of the Rugby World Cup, according to the latest New Zealand Herald/DigiPoll survey.

In the first of a series of weekly polls leading up to the November 26 election, Labour's support slipped slightly, but ratings for leader Phil Goff have gone up, just as strategists admit he has been left off Labour's billboards this election campaign.

The Greens remain high and Act New Zealand has barely moved.

With just over four weeks to go to the election, National would comfortably govern on its own with 53.5% of decided voters, up 1.5 percentage points.

DigiPoll general manager Nandan Modak said National had gained support among males, young people and Aucklanders.

"This could be result of the feel-good factor from the World Cup victory."

But Prime Minister John Key is likely to warn party faithful at the party's campaign launch in Auckland tomorrow not to be complacent.

"This a long, long way away from being a done deal," he said.

"A lot can change and like World Cups, elections are immensely difficult to win, even if they look easy from the outside.

"There's just no room for complacency."

There was no question the hosting of the Rugby World Cup and the success of the tournament, and particularly the success of the Auckland waterfront would be seen as the Government and the council "getting the job done, doing the job well, getting the job right", he said.

Mr Goff said through a spokeswoman his party was working hard for every vote.

"We don't take our support for granted.

"We believe we are making the tough decisions needed to turn this country round and secure a prosperous future for all Kiwis."

The number of voters who believe the Government is moving in the right direction is virtually unchanged: 59 Yes and 32.9 No.

In today's poll, Labour is on 30.3% (down 1.2 percentage points); the Greens 9.5% (down 0.3); Act 1.5% (up 0.3); Maori Party 1.2% (down 0.5); New Zealand First 2.8% (up 0.4); Mana Party 0.1% (down 0.1); United Future 0.1% (no change); and Legalise Cannabis (down from 0.3).

Polling started before the Rugby World Cup final in Auckland, which was narrowly won by the All Blacks. Other events leading up to the polling included the Rena oil spill off Tauranga, a downgrade for New Zealand by two credit rating agencies, and accusations that Mr Key misled the House when he claimed Standard and Poor's said a downgrade would be more likely if Labour became Government.

Despite having had a rougher than normal month, Mr Key's ratings remain high at 70.6%, which is where he has rated in DigiPoll surveys for about a year.

Support for Mr Goff rose from 11.5% to 13.7% and support for New Zealand First leader Winston Peters fell from 5.2% to 3.5%.

• The poll of 750 respondents was taken between October 20 and 27 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6%. Party vote figures are of decided voters only, and 10.6% were undecided.

 

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