Voters living overseas may decide the results of this year's general election.
Record numbers of overseas-based New Zealanders are set to vote after extensive nonpartisan lobbying on the internet specifically targeted voters living abroad.
"On current trends, about 50 percent more Kiwis overseas are likely to vote this year than in 2005," said Ivan Moss, chief executive of the Kiwi Expats Association (Kea) network.
On Wednesday, 56,152 overseas New Zealanders had enrolled to vote, and if patterns seen in previous elections are repeated, this will rise to around 60,000 by election day - still only about a 10th of the citizens living abroad.
If only 70 percent of those enrolled vote, that will make a record 42,000 overseas votes in this year's election, compared with 28,000 in 2005.
"Because overseas voting patterns tend to be different, Kiwis overseas could make a real difference in this year's election," said Mr Moss.
New analysis just published by an Oxford University researcher, New Zealander Alan Gamlen, shows that overseas votes have changed the outcome of several previous New Zealand elections.
Mr Moss said analysis by Kea had highlighted several scenarios where overseas votes could tip a cliffhanger result in this election - either for parties or for the Government itself.
"The overseas votes might be influential enough to decide whether National can govern alone, whether ACT's Roger Douglas returns to Parliament, or whether the Greens achieve the 5 percent threshold and get six seats in Parliament," he said.
Mr Moss called for all New Zealanders overseas to quickly enrol online through www.everyvotecounts.co.nz, and to exercise their vote.
Kea is an independent, non-government, non-profit society building networks of New Zealanders living aboard - its Every Vote Counts campaign has been non-partisan, and run without public funding.
