New Zealand First leader Winston Peters is rising from the political grave and is within a whisker of returning to Parliament with potential to hold the balance of power.
The latest Herald-DigiPoll survey has the party on 4.9% support, just short of the 5% threshold required if the party does not win an electorate seat.
If the poll was translated to votes, New Zealand First would not be in Parliament; National could just govern on its own, with a little cushion of two votes from Act New Zealand and one from United Future - all assuming the Maori Party, United Future and Mana keep their seats.
But in a horror scenario for National, and one that is not far-fetched, small movements in numbers could have major consequences. The poll shows the number of undecided voters has risen to 12.7%.
If Labour lost just 0.1% to New Zealand First, and Act lost Epsom, Act would be out altogether and National and United Future would not have a majority in a new Parliament.
Mr Peters would return to Parliament leading a team of six MPs including former North Shore Mayor Andrew Williams and former TV weatherman Brendan Horan.
If Mr Peters kept his word given on November 6 not to support National or Labour, then National and United Future could govern with 62 votes more votes than the 57 votes Labour could muster with the Greens, the Maori Party and Mana.
But if Mr Peters broke his word, Labour would be able to form a Government with the support of New Zealand First, the Greens, the Maori Party and Mana - although Labour leader Phil Goff has said he would not work with Mana.
In that scenario, National would need the support (or abstention) of either the Maori Party, the Greens or New Zealand First to be confident ofthe numbers to govern.
The Maori Party could be the party with the balance of power if the Greens and New Zealand First opposed National on confidence and supply.
National is on 49.89% (up 0.4); Labour 29.1% (up 0.4); Greens 12.6% (no change); NZ First 4.9% (up 1.2); Act 1.7% (up 0.2); Maori Party 0.7% (up 0.2); Conservatives 0.6% (down 0.4) Mana Party 0.4% (down 0.4); United Future 0.1% (down 0.6).
The poll of 750 voters was up to Wednesday this week. The party vote is of decided voters and 12.7% of respondents were undecided. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6%.
