Battle to retake Mosul begins

Peshmerga forces advance to attack Islamic State militants in Mosul, Iraq. Photo Reuters
Peshmerga forces advance to attack Islamic State militants in Mosul, Iraq. Photo Reuters
The long-awaited offensive to recapture Mosul from Islamic State has begun, launching a major effort by the Iraqi government to oust the extremists from their last major stronghold in Iraq.

"These forces that are liberating you today, they have one goal in Mosul, which is to get rid of Daesh and to secure your dignity," Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said on state television, referring to Islamic State by its Arabic acronym.

Islamic State seized Mosul, once the country's second-largest city with a diverse population of about 1.2 million, in 2014.

The battle for Mosul, which had been expected sometime this month, comes as Iraqi forces have been gaining momentum in routing Islamic State, shrinking its territory by a quarter of what it was last year.

This is expected to be the Iraqi military's most complex operation yet: urban warfare in a densely populated city still full of civilians. But there's also the promise of scoring an enormous strategic, economic and symbolic victory in the same city where the military was soundly defeated just two years ago.

The extremists have dug ditches around the city and filled them with oil and tyres that they have set on fire, filling the skies with black smoke and preventing drones from observing them. They have also developed underground supply lines to avoid being seen, according to Col. John Dorrian, a top spokesman for US forces in Iraq.

The Mosul offensive will be led by 35,000 Iraqi security forces, trained with help from coalition advisers. More than 5,200 US forces are in Iraq, Dorrian said, among 8,000 coalition troops.

The US believes it can limit collateral damage because it spent months using spy satellites and drones to determine where civilians live and work. It has also pinpointed where militants are holed up through the imagery and by collecting cellphone and digital communications.

Officials dropped leaflets on Mosul in recent weeks urging residents to shelter in place once the offensive started. But humanitarian groups expect that in the next two weeks, 200,000 will flee. That will create challenges for forces attempting to secure the city and screen civilians and direct them to safe exit routes.

By the time the offensive is over, they predict up to a million could be displaced, many with nowhere to go.

The area is already full of those displaced from Mosul and surrounding villages: one camp, Dibaga, was built to house 20,000 families and is home to twice as many, including 400 people sleeping in the mosque and school.

Despite emergency appeals, the United Nations failed to receive additional funding in time to prepare all of the needed emergency camps for those fleeing, and was scrambling to assemble supplies, officials said.

The US role will largely be limited to delivering airstrikes in support of advancing Iraqi ground forces, providing intelligence and advising Iraqi and Kurdish commanders to develop strategy. Coalition warplanes have been dropping precision-guided bombs on militant positions, weapons depots and armored vehicles in and around Mosul for more than two years in anticipation of the long-awaited ground invasion to take it back.

Iraqi military forces will be aided by Kurdish fighters, or peshmerga, Dorrian said, and Sunni tribal forces. Shiite militias, a politically powerful force in Iraq, may also play a role in the offensive, but likely outside the largely Sunni city, officials said.

With so many factions and forces involved, there are concerns that sectarian tensions could hinder the offensive, said Patrick Martin, a research analyst who focuses on Iraq at the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank.

"There's so many different political forces that have armed groups converging on the city," he said. "The mind-set people have is recapturing the city needs to happen. There needs to be an equal amount of attention paid to what the post-capture state of the city looks like to ensure it doesn't fall back into a vacuum."

Sunni tribal militias have already been recruiting child fighters from camps for the displaced, Martin noted. Shiite militias entered other mainly Sunni cities after agreeing to remain on the periphery, and clashed with residents.

Some Mosul residents, alienated from the federal government, initially welcomed Islamic State, and if the offensive is not handled well, they could turn back to extremists, Martin said. "If their families are subjected to sectarian violence or they're treated very poorly in camps (for the displaced) and not allowed to return to their homes, they become disaffected," he said.
 

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