The French presidential elections are about to attract global attention as a former prime minister and devotee of Margaret Thatcher has become established as a frontrunner to win the Republican nomination.
Francois Fillon, the former prime minister who in a 35-year political career has come to embody the very essence of the French political establishment, is campaigning on the slogan of: "We have to change the system."
Mr Fillon is now odds-on favourite to win the Right’s nomination for presidential candidate on Monday (New Zealand time), leading to him probably facing the far-right National Front’s Marine Le Pen.
Mr Fillon is an unrepentant Margaret Thatcher fan who has taken a different line with the traditionally statist line of the French right by promising a radical shock for France through tax cuts, public spending cuts, slashing public sector jobs and breaking trade union power.
His popularity is said to be down to his careful appeal to the deeply socially conservative view of the Catholic right, promising to reverse the recently won adoption rights for gay couples, preserve traditional family values and respect for France’s Christian roots.
The final run-off for the Republican nomination will take place between Mr Fillon and another former prime minister, Alain Juppe. Mr Juppe is accusing Mr Fillon of wanting to drag back into the past with a traditionalist vision of the role of women, the family and marriage. He is insisting Mr Fillon clarify his position on abortion.
For her part, Ms Le Pen has been talking about the declining standard of living and the lack of real job creation. A lot of the jobs are part-time, temporary contract jobs from which people cannot make a living. Many young people in France are stuck in low-paid, part-time service employment. Until now, politicians have not been addressing those issues.
France’s election has suddenly become important to the world because of United States president-elect Donald Trump. Mr Trump is now backing away from some of his more controversial campaign stances. Nevertheless, Mr Trump won the conservative vote in America by focusing on the loss of factory jobs, appealing to voters opposed to mass immigration and — to be blunt — the white vote.
Ms Le Pen says if she wins the presidential elections, the world will become a safer place as France will co-operate with both Mr Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
When someone comes along like Ms Le Pen, Mr Trump or the UKIP Party, in Britain, and says the system has to change, it does not matter how specific they get about the details of the change. It is there as an offering of something different, something that either is not there any more or an appealing future position in the time of turmoil.
One of the big unknowns is the accuracy of the opinion polls now being run in France. The pollsters are the same ones who said Britain would not leave Europe and Mr Trump had no chance of winning.
This time, however, the mood of the electorate worldwide has shifted significantly, thanks in no small part to Mr Trump. Being different can be a vote-catcher and with France and Germany paying the bills for the mass immigration following the Syrian conflict, conservative politicians are being listened to with much greater interest and respect.
Mr Trump is disavowing the alt-right support he received during his election campaign but Ms Le Pen epitomises the ultra-right of Europe. Messrs Fillon and Juppe are more moderate Republicans but are well to the right of the political spectrum. Austria and parts of southern Germany are very much to the right of conservatism. A sea change is happening in global politics whether voters are ready or not.
