Dealing with North Korea

 

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Photo: Getty
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Photo: Getty

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe led his party to an overwhelming win at the weekend, giving him an unprecedented mandate to deal with the most pressing of security problems - North Korea.

Mr Abe has expressed the same concerns as his ally United States President Donald Trump about shows of force by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

Earlier in the weekend, Mr Trump said the US was prepared to go to war with North Korea if it continued its aggressive acts of launching missiles into the Pacific.

Mr Abe has likewise warned of action after missiles flew over northern Japan.

Mr Abe's Liberal Democratic Party and a small coalition partner have secured at least 312 seats in a 465-seat lower house of Parliament, passing the 310 barrier for a two-thirds majority.

In the immediate term, the win likely means a continuation of the policies Mr Abe has pursued since he took office in December. They include a hard line on North Korea, close ties with Washington, including defence, as well as a super-loose monetary policy and a push for nuclear energy. His win was received well by Japan markets, which rose immediately after the election result was announced.

No-one should take lightly Mr Abe's threats of direction action against North Korea. Japan has a modern and technologically-advanced military, but without the missiles of its near foe - North Korea.

Mr Abe's party and its nationalist supporters have long advocated for constitutional revisions, arguing the 1947 constitution as the legacy of Japan's defeat in the Second World War is an imposition of the victor's values.

The charter renounces the use of force in international conflicts and limits Japan's troops to self-defence. In practice, Japan's military works closely with the US and has been involved in peace-keeping operations around the world.

Any change to Japan's constitution, which has never been amended, requires approval by two-thirds of Parliament, something Mr Abe now controls.

The debate about constitutional reform in Japan will be side-tracked by ideological debates, experts say. The Left insists the pacifist Article 9 must remain untouched, an unrealistic proposition because the world has changed and the clause is an anachronism.

Chinese ambitions worry the Japanese just as much as aggression from North Korea. The Right claims the uncertainty about the willingness of the US to continue contributing to regional security means Japan must take on the role.

Memories of Japan's invasions throughout Asia, particularly down to within striking distance of Australia, still linger, although Japan academics say gone are the days when South-east Asia and Australia were concerned about a revival of Japanese militarism.

Japan is a large investor in South-east Asia, but whether investment is enough to placate concerns has yet to be tested.

Mr Abe has regularly caused distress with his sometime visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, a Japanese Shinto shrine to war dead who served the Emperor of Japan during wars from 1867 and 1951. Some of those honoured at the shrine were convicted of war crimes.

The constitution is a divisive issue for Mr Abe and is regarded as part of a global shift from interest-based politics to identity politics. In America, it is immigration and abortion. In Britain, it is the European Union and Brexit and in Japan, it is the constitution.

Japanese people will be asked if they are happy with post-war liberal democracy or whether they want to revive an older Japan and its values.

Mr Abe has already pushed through a law allowing Japan to engage in collective self-defence, but it is not enough for the prime minister. Commentators say more pressing issues for the new Government are the economy and Japan's ageing society.

President Trump intends visiting Japan next week. Signs of support for Mr Abe's ambitious plans for military power may come from those meetings, alerting Japan's near neighbours to a change in the military balance of the region.

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