Erdogan's widening influence

Recep Tayyip Erdogan
Recep Tayyip Erdogan
Recep Tayyip Erdogan has claimed victory in Turkey's presidential election as late support flooded in for the president who will enter office with new extraordinary powers.

The secular opposition is calling foul on the elections after providing a strong early showing. However, Mr Erdogan's disparate group of supporters decided at the last minute to put their support behind his bid, rather than boycott the elections.

Mr Erdogan needed more than 50% of the vote to avoid a second round of voting on July 8. It appears he has received 53% of the vote, lower than he will like but more than the amount with which his Opposition will feel comfortable.

The new extraordinary powers the president will receive include gaining complete control of the cabinet and the power to appoint senior judges and officials, including unelected vice-presidents. The president will also have the power to issue decrees with the force of law.

The powers will allow the president to transform Turkey's political scene for years and possibly decades to come, governing until 2028 if his party, the AKP, wins re-election.

Opposition candidates and officials called foul as soon as the results came in when the state news agencies started releasing voting numbers two hours ahead of schedule. Mr Erdogan's party controls most of the media.

The election took place on an uneven playing field, against a backdrop of human rights abuses Amnesty International described as a ``climate of fear''.

In an important symbolic move, Mr Erdogan is being compared by his supporters with the founder of Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.

When the election was called, it was done, so observers believe, to pre-empt an economic slump expected later this year. Mismanagement of the economy, worries of overheating, a growing foreign trade deficit and a rapid fall in value of the Turkish lira were the backdrop.

Western leaders will have to make some tough choices if the election results are confirmed.

In the United States, Congress is trying to block the sale of 100 Lockheed Martin F-35 joint strike fighters, known as Lightning II, thought to be the best combat jet in the world.

Congress is focusing its anger on Turkey's recent actions in Syria, its collaboration with Iran and human rights abuses. But what really upset the Americans is Mr Erdogan's parallel purchase of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missiles designed to shoot down F-35s. Mr Erdogan, it appears, wants it both ways, a continuing problem for the US and Europe which needs Turkey for a host of strategic, political, practical and geographical reasons.

Congress published an open letter criticising Mr Erdogan's record, accusing Turkey of actively operating to undermine US interests around the world.

Confrontational behaviour in northern Syria, where the president threatened US troops working with Kurdish forces to defeat the so-called Islamic State, has left the Pentagon asking on whose side is Mr Erdogan.

European governments have a similar dilemma. Turkey is valued as a secular, democratic and pro-Western outpost in a region where such qualities are rare. Mr Erdogan is moving Turkey to a more religious-based country where daily sermons are distributed to Turks scattered around the world.

Turkey is still seen as a possible European Union member, causing EU leaders to refrain from the type of criticism coming out of Washington.

For many Turks, Mr Erdogan is seen as Turkey's saviour. He is being given credit for turning Turkey into a modern, urbanised and industrialised country.

It is likely the president will now clamp down harder on opponents to his plans for his country, leaving the US and Europe to decide their next action. Any overtures to Russia from Mr Erdogan are sure to upset the balance between east and west, yet another diplomatic pressure for the world to absorb.

 

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