New Zealand’s population is expected to reach five million by 2020 and could reach the milestone sooner.
On the face of it, there is nothing in the statement from Statistics New Zealand to cause concern.
This country’s population was estimated to be 4.69million at June 30, with net migration being 69,100 in the June year.
The latest projections show a high chance of the population rising to between 4.9 million and 5.1million.
By 2068, the projections indicate a population of between 5.3million and 7.9million.
If there is no migration, the population will peak at 5.3million in 2050 and then slowly decline.
But there is migration and despite forecasts to the contrary, a record 70,000 more migrants arrived than departed in the year ended September, surpassing the previous annual record net gain of 69,100 migrants in August and June.
Most of the arrivals are people coming in on work visas, including those on a working holiday.
New Zealand and Australian citizens make up 29% of the total, those with student visas make up 20% and those with residence visas 13%.
Seasonally adjusted figures show a net gain of 6300 migrants in September, again surpassing the previous peak of 6200 in November last year.
Immigration plays a major part in the growing of New Zealand’s population.
Other statistics show 15 of New Zealand’s 16 regions experienced growth this year and three-quarters had greater increases than in the year to June 2015.
The most significant component of growth in most areas is record net migration, with more people arriving than departing.
Not only was growth high in the big cities, but also in their surrounding areas.
The Queenstown-Lakes district overtook the Selwyn district as the fastest-growing territorial authority area in the year to June having a 7.1% population increase.
Growth in Queenstown-Lakes and the greater Christchurch area accounted for about 73% of the population increase in the South Island.
The devastating Canterbury earthquakes are the reason why the relatively untouched Selwyn district experienced such rapid growth in population in recent years.
But a completely different story relates to Queenstown which has become a hub for people seeking the lifestyle the resort offers.
The latest national population projections are not designed to be exact forecasts but rather a guide to help planning.
But how well we are planning is up for debate.
The projections also show growing numbers of older people in coming decades.
The number of people aged 85 years and older will more than triple from about 83,000 in 2016 to between 270,000 and 320,000 in the next 30 years.
Those aged 65 years and older will roughly double from about 700,000 now to between 1.3 million and 1.5 million in 2046.
The difficulty for planners is adjusting for an ageing population and the need of businesses to recruit skilled workers to replace people leaving the workforce.
Although many New Zealanders are working well past the so-called retirement age of 65, there still needs to be a replenishment of the workforce.
The gap between births and deaths is expected to narrow quickly from now and population growth is likely to halve to less than 1% in the 2030s.
Already, Queenstown is under enormous resource pressure through a lack of workers to service the growing population and a shortage of affordable accommodation.
Governments are always wary about the voting strength of the elderly, and that will continue.
However, the needs of the young must be recognised.
The country is in a state of housing unaffordability.
Hospital services are stretched along with services catering for the elderly.
Too many reports have been prepared in the past then set aside without action.
A sensible and cross-party political approach is urgently needed to plan for how this country deals with its changing population.
