You could just about hear the collective whoop for joy that went up around Otago after news that the early part of the southern summer may be warmer and drier than normal.
That is exactly what many want to hear as summer and long annual holidays inch closer. But while the general populace will eagerly embrace the prediction, those whose livelihoods depend on the weather are less likely to be thrilled by it.
Last week much of Otago enjoyed a touch of summer. For farmers throughout Central Otago and the Queenstown Lakes districts, already experiencing one of the longest stretches without rain for years, it will have been an unwelcome foreshadowing of what might be to come during the next few months.
It has long been this way — the assumption that warm and dry equals good and desirable, while cold or wet is bad. As southerners, we are often on the receiving end of that kind of inference. But there is a new and bigger dimension to this view that warm is best and it is called climate change.
On the same day the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) released its November to January seasonal climate outlook, the new Government announced it was looking into the feasibility of introducing a climate change visa for Pacific Islanders who are being displaced by rising sea levels.
These stories are a little like different sides of the same coin. Clearly, one warm summer, or one rainstorm, cannot be definitively sheeted home to climate change, but while people here may celebrate higher temperatures as the years pass, others elsewhere are forced to live with far more devastating consequences.
Human rights lawyer Michael Kidd is a strong advocate for the new visa category. He represented Kiribati man Ioane Teititoa, who was deported two years ago with his wife and three New Zealand-born children after their bid to stay in New Zealand as "climate change refugees" failed. There are now about 2000 displaced Kiribati people living illegally in New Zealand.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has already signalled climate change issues are high on the priority list. She says New Zealand is on the front line for receiving such refugees and has a "duty of care" to its Pacific neighbours.
Ms Ardern’s Government is likely to be more active in dealing with climate change than its National predecessor. Few realists could argue it should not be so. The message also needs to start getting through to all that a warming climate is something far more serious than worrying about which beach to sit on.
Seasonal forecasts like Niwa’s are useful in giving a broad indication of the overall weather during the next few months. But they do not account for the daily fluctuations in weather.
Weather forecasting has improved vastly during the past few decades. Where once it was impossible for meteorologists to predict conditions beyond a couple of days ahead, advanced computer modelling has made it possible to now take for granted forecasts looking five or six, even 10, days out.
Satellite imagery gives forecasters frequent snapshots of the extent of cloud sheets and weather systems, and the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. Weather radar units can detect fast-moving fronts and hazardous thunder and hail storms, and for that reason is a particularly useful tool along the east coast of the South Island.
Computer models have also helped scientists issue long-term climate projections and interpret the possible, even likely, effects of our warming climate on people and nations, and on what it means for food sources and the control of pests.If the forecasts for the first part of summer prove correct, spare a thought for those in weather-dependent industries like agriculture. And if the projections from climate scientists come true, New Zealanders will have to do more than just think about the plight of others.
