The housing and business development capacity assessments, commissioned by the Queenstown Lakes District Council, outline the future supply and demand of housing, and commercial and industrial land, based on population projections and the district plan.
They found a shortfall of industrial land was likely from 2026.
There was likely to be a shortfall of about 16.5ha to cater for the estimate 34ha needed over the long term.
Council planning and development general manager Tony Avery said if there was a shortage of industrial land, that could "potentially restrict" the servicing of some businesses.
Industrial activities might also be forced to look outside of the Wakatipu Basin to places such as Wanaka or Central Otago, he said.
But recently released decisions on stage one of the proposed district plan could have an effect, he said. An example was a recommendation for an industrial zone at Coneburn.
It was unclear how much of an effect that would have on the predicted shortfall if it went ahead, Mr Avery said.
The assessments also reaffirmed the district’s notorious shortage of affordable housing.
In a report to the council’s planning and development committee, council senior policy planner Anita Vanstone says they found a "a shortfall of feasible capacity in the lower band priced housing".
"The analysis suggests the plan provides capacity for the market to provide a substantial share of the shortfall of houses in the lower to medium price bracket.
"However, because of high demand and the potential for developers to sell houses at much higher prices the market is not delivering these dwellings."
Mr Avery said that reinforced the work the council was already doing on housing affordability.
The council has a mayoral task-force working alongside organisations such as the Queenstown Lakes Community Housing Trust to look at ways to provide affordable housing in the area.
- Daisy Hudson
