Worse yields were predicted immediately after a tough harvest in Canterbury and other growing regions.
After factoring in a 4% increase in area harvested, the Arable Industry Marketing Initiative (Aimi) calculated there is no change from the tonnages of the previous season for the six main crops.
However, it did underline that this could be inflated as test weights in some regions were down because of poor weather, which could lead to less grain in silos than expected.
Data collected from 127 survey farms around the country to July was scaled up to a national level — the little unsold and sold grain carried over from last year’s harvest excluded from the survey.
Unsold stocks of feed wheat and feed barley from this year’s harvest are similar to this time last year.
Stocks of milling wheat yet to be sold are down 7900 tonnes on last year, and malting barley is up 2100 tonnes.
The survey revealed about 6300 tonnes of feed wheat is estimated to have been sold as milling wheat.
Some autumn and winter-sown crops have been affected by flooding and may have to be re-sown.
Milling wheat, which has either gone into the ground or is intended to be sown, is up 38% on last season, while feed wheat is identical to last season and most of it has been sown.
Sowing intentions for malting barley are up 2%, feed barley are down 8%, milling oats are down 9% and feed oats are down 16%, although less than half of these crops had actually been sown by the beginning of July.
Yield estimates at this stage are down for feed wheat by 1%, feed barley by 4%, milling wheat by 3%, malting barley by 13% and milling oats by 8%, while feed oat yields are up 9%.
Unsold grain is estimated at 51,300 tonnes for feed wheat, 52,900 tonnes for feed barley, 9500 tonnes for milling wheat and 4300 tonnes for malting barley.
Planting predictions for next year’s harvest are, over all six cereal crops, down 1% — from 95,100ha to 94,000ha.
The estimated total tonnage for milling wheat of 59,900 tonnes, compared with last year’s harvest, was down 37%.
About 84% of this has been sold, although a large amount of the sold grain is still stored on farms.
The 9500 tonnes of unsold grain is lower than the same time last year, when there was 17,300 tonnes.
The estimated 341,000 tonnes of feed wheat is up 4%, with about 85% of this sold and much of it still stored on farms.
The 51,300 tonnes of unsold grain is similar to last July.
The total estimate of 304,500 tonnes for feed barley is up 14%, 39,300 tonnes for malting barley is down 31%, 16,300 tonnes for milling oats is up 14% and 8600 tonnes for feed oats is down 19%.
The actual area sown in autumn and winter wheat or barley by July was up 1%, but when combined with spring sowing intentions, sown areas are predicted to be down 1%, Aimi said.
Over the two-year period to the following harvest, the harvest area for feed wheat is predicted to increase by 6%, feed barley by 9% and milling oats by 12% — however, milling wheat is expected to decrease by 10%, malting barley by 19% and feed oats 37%.
Aimi says the market is strong with good demand and prices increasing, but so are expenses for fuel, fertiliser and wages.
The feeling among growers is uncertainty about what crops to sow and how much. Some growers are opting for lower input crops such as peas to ease cashflows and others are waiting for contracts to come out for cereals and other crops before deciding.
Autumn conditions were good for establishing crops in South Canterbury and Southland, but there’s now too much water in Canterbury, and some flooded crops may need re-drilling. Later sown crops are struggling with the wet and cold.
