Talking about training and driving premierships is frowned upon in some circles. But it is certainly not within this column, writes Jonny Turner.
In fact, it is celebrated.
A good premiership battle adds a fascinating dimension to either code. It is debated as much as any topic when anyone in the industry has a moment to spare.
Hardly a meeting goes by when the topic of Dexter Dunn versus Blair Orange does not come up.
We are lucky in this part of the country to have these two brilliant reinsmen driving at most meetings. Both of them are great guys and could not be more helpful when I talk to them for stories for this paper.
The general consensus is that Orange has an unassailable lead in this year’s premiership. They say it finally looks as if Dunn will be knocked off the top spot, for this season anyway. It is hard to argue with that. Orange is certainly going to take some catching.
It is a pretty fair argument judging by Tuesday’s Manawatu meeting.
Orange won four races for a stable which previously used Dunn as its No1 driver.
It seems to be after a close look that the Manawatu circuit — the home of the battler — will decide this year’s premiership.
Orange went into that meeting with 70 wins on the board, a 27-win break on Dunn.
That became 31 wins afterwards and it is exactly that kind of form which is why he is a $1.09 chance to win the premiership with the TAB.
Fair enough odds, but I am reluctant to write off the champion driver who I rate as the best I have ever seen.
And if you are keen to take the $6 on offer for Dunn, then there is hope.
A look back to last year’s premiership adds weight to the argument that Dunn can win again.
At the same stage of last season, Dunn had driven only three more winners than he has this year.
So much for him having a slow start to his season. It cannot have been too slow because he went on to set an all-time record for the number of wins with 228. From this point of the season Dunn went on to win 183 more races, which if he does again will give him a tally of 225 this year.
Using the same method, Orange will finish on 211 wins. He won 137 more races after this point of the season last year.
Of course, history is unlikely to repeat exactly and there are other questions to ask. How likely it is that the drivers will replicate what happened last year? Is either driver likely to be getting more drives, better drives or driving those horses better the rest of this season, compared with last?
It is hard to argue Orange does not tick both boxes. In fact, it is a given. The crucial part of that is the Manawatu circuit which has already yielded wins to Orange and will obviously boost his end-of-season figures compared with last year.
Some would say Dunn has not been driving to the high level he was last year, which strengthens the case for Orange to win. I do not agree with this, but have to acknowledge he does not seem to be driving as many good horses as he was last year. But they can not be too different, as he is only three wins behind where he was last year.
The challenge he has is to replicate what he did last year. Driving 182 winners in eight months last year was extraordinary, so to repeat that effort is going to be even more incredible.
While am going against the popular vote I would suggest the $1.09 and $6 odds seem too far apart. Whether you can take advantage of that by having a wager is your call. But two things are certain: the race is far from over and it is going to make enthralling viewing.
Happy trails
