Will stats rule?

Benjamin Disraeli, the prominent English politician of the 19th century, was probably not a rugby fan, but when it comes to rugby previews, his comment about  lies is probably appropriate.

Disraeli claimed that there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.

To assess the moods of the 60-plus rugby players involved in North Otago’s rugby semifinals  tomorrow, statistics are the base.

Top qualifier Old Boys dropped only one game during the season to second-placed Valley by a solitary point.

The Old Boys side’s previous loss was in the 2016 Citizens Shield final.During this season, Old Boys, renowned for  its free-flowing play, scored more than 80 tries.

The total of its semifinal opponent, Kurow, which won five of its games, is less than half that.

Old Boys scored 595 points during the season, conceding a mere 227, while Kurow scored 357 points and conceded 475.

During the season, the two teams have met on three occasions, with Old Boys winning 31-6, 44-32 and 33-22.

Valley will meet Excelsior in the other semifinal. These two teams are much closer in quality. Valley over the season scored  40 tries with Excelsior just a solitary try behind.

Valley, in the season, bagged six tries once and twice scored five tries, scoring 363 points and conceding 380 points.

Excelsior’s tally of tries for the season was 39, and it scored 323 points and conceded 398.

Excelsior won its first-round game against Valley 39-32, then lost the next two 27-23 and 15-12, actually outscoring Valley 12 tries to six.

Often in playoffs, individuals can have a big impact.

One such player is Valley’s Dan Lewis. A player from the Bedford club in England, Lewis has been Valley’s mainstay with the five-eighth scoring 146 points in just the 10 games he has played in.

While up in Kurow, Tyler Burgess has scored 138 points at first five-eighth or fullback.

On past form, top qualifier Old Boys, if Kurow allows it to play its free-running style, should control the game, but Kurow has a strong mobile pack, which has been prepared to do the hard yards. Kurow knows from past experience  the Old Boys forward pack is susceptible to the pick and go which Kurow have used positively previously.

Valley is a well-structured side and will play its typical tight game but that could bring a confrontation with the Excelsior pack, which can more than hold its own.

The Excelsior backs, if all are fit, can be dangerous in possession.

At 2.45pm tomorrow it will not matter what individuals and teams have done in the past. Those qualities and statistics have brought them to the playoffs. Now the sides have got to win the semifinal to take the final step next week.

As to the likely results, remember Disraeli’s thoughts.

- Terry O'Neill

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