Rugby: England won't win World Cup

Chris Robshaw runs the ball at the Ireland defence during England's last warm-up game. Photo:...
Chris Robshaw runs the ball at the Ireland defence during England's last warm-up game. Photo: Reuters.
First impressions aren't everything but they are usually right.

And first impression of the team England have picked for the opening game - they are not going to win the World Cup with it.

Never say never, but the list of names didn't scream champions. If England can win this World Cup with that team, fair play to them, they will have worked a not so small miracle.

Maybe its no wonder head coach Stuart Lancaster has been making references to 2019 in recent weeks. He's been quoted a few times suggesting his mission as England coach is to build a team that wins in four years.

This tournament coming would be a nice to win rather than a must win reckons Lancaster. He's definitely been trying to lower public expectation or perhaps create a tangible bank of evidence with which to save his own skin should England fail to deliver at this tournament.

There is also the chance that he's actually quite genuine in his belief that 2019 is a more realistic timeframe for this squad.

Genuine because the first and overwhelming conclusion about the side he's picked to play Fiji, is that it lacks experience.

History, and it has mostly been an accurate guide at World Cups, shows that experience has been everything. No champion side has lacked experience - it's a common thread that unites all the winners.

It's not quite as simple as the team with the most combined caps wins, but it's not far off either. England would rip all this up if they win this tournament. They would be changing the landscape entirely.

England aren't even in the top 10 for collective test caps and will open their campaign with just one player - Dan Cole - who has played more than 50 tests.

First impression is that they don't have the collective ability to stay calm in the heat of the battle: they don't have enough decision-making prowess to work themselves through sticky situations.

Give them another four years - and most of the players starting are young enough to still be around in 2019 - and it will be a different story.

It's not just the lack of experience, though. England's loose forward trio have tremendous physical presence but not much in the way of pace or variation of pace.

Their midfield has been chucked together and looks a bit like the selectors have agreed it is the least risky of some unconvincing options while Johnny May on the wing is prone to wild fluctuations.

There's a chance they will grow into the tournament.

There's a chance this unlikely looking bunch will use their undoubted work ethic, size and sheer determination not to fail to graft their way deep into the playoffs.

There's a bigger chance, though, they will be exposed for not being quite ready yet to play pressure rugby. Good enough to make it out of their pool, but not mentally tough enough or conditioned yet to string together another three quality performances.

England: Mike Brown, Anthony Watson, Jonathan Joseph, Brad Barritt, Jonny May, George Ford, Ben Youngs; Ben Morgan, Chris Robshaw (captain), Tom Wood, Courtney Lawes, Geoff Parling, Dan Cole, Tom Youngs, Joe Marler. Reserves: Rob Webber, Mako Vunipola, Kieran Brookes, Joe Launchbury, Billy Vunipola, Richard Wigglesworth, Owen Farrell, Sam Burgess.

By Gregor Paul of the New Zealand Herald. 

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