Rugby writer Steve Hepburn looks at the record of Otago and the Highlanders over the past couple of years and wonders why there are so many what-might-have-beens.
They say there are lies, damned lies and statistics.
But whatever is said about rugby in the South, there is one statistic that hovers over Otago and Highlanders rugby The inability to win the close ones.
The nail-biters.
The ones which could have gone either way.
Otago's 35-29 loss to Waikato at Carisbrook at the weekend was just another defeat to add to the sorry list.
In a combined 47 games, going back to the start of 2008 season, the Highlanders and Otago have been beaten by seven points or less 19 times.
That is 40% of all their games.
If they had turned those close losses into wins, Otago and the Highlanders would have earned 76 competition points, instead of 19 bonus points.
And it is not as though the sides are winning just as many close games.
In only three of those 47 games have they won by seven points or fewer.
Take this year's Otago team, for example.
It has lost five games by fewer than seven points.
If it had won three of those games, it would be in sixth place.
If it had won all five of them, it would be third equal with Wellington.
But it did not, and that is why it is sitting in 11th place.
Take a look at this year's Highlanders.
Believe it or not, if they had won every one of the six games they lost by fewer than seven points, they would have finished top of the table.
The inability to win those close ones has been the real obstacle to the teams' success.
But why is it happening?Various theories abound, and it is probably a combination of all of them.
Refereeing calls are often lamented.
There has been the odd poor call - the non-awarding of a try to Adam Thomson against Manawatu this year, Queensland getting dubious tries awarded to it at the start of the 2008 Highlanders season.
But 19 close defeats cannot be attributed solely to the man in the middle.
A lack of experience is often a catalyst for a defeat.
A close game comes down to a couple of key moments, and knowing the right thing to do at the right time can only be learned from playing the game at the highest level.
The Highlanders and Otago lack experienced players in key positions, and that has come back to haunt them.
When the Crusaders beat the Blues to make the Super 14 semifinals this season, they marched down the field with assurance in the last five minutes, allowing veteran Leon MacDonald to calmly slot a dropped goal to win the game.
Somehow the maturity and composure needed to do something like that never seems to grace the southern sides.
Otago coach Steve Martin said after Saturday's loss, the close losses could partly be attributed to a lack of experience.
His team needed to acquire the habit of winning.
Highlanders coach Glenn Moore said the same thing after close losses last season, maintaining the team needed to grow and strike up combinations to get the results.
Teams with success, such as the Crusaders, are also said to have a culture of winning.
But what is the culture of winning?Players who have been to sessions such as the Crusaders' say training is no different.
Is it just that some players in those winning teams have a huge thirst for victory and will stop at nothing to achieve it?
Maybe some of the losses could also be because of what could be termed "the uncontrollables".
Sometimes a team strikes an opponent when it is running hot; sometimes, it is lucky to strike a team out of form.
A player can also do something out of the ordinary, which can turn a game.
Take Chiefs winger Lelia Masaga scoring a cracking try to beat the Highlanders in Invercargill last season.
Or Highlanders first five-eighth Mathew Berquist dropping the ball in his own dead ball area to hand the Sharks a try last season.
But maybe there is a more basic reason for the close losses.
Maybe it is just pure bad luck.
Or maybe it is because the players are simply not good enough.
But one thing is sure - it is a fine line between victory and defeat in top level sport.
Otago and the Highlanders need to start finishing on the right side of that line.
