The thing about World Cups is the ultimate heroes are often not the men initially picked. Rugby has reached the stage where it's so physical and intense, it isn't feasible to believe the All Blacks will get through the tournament next year with the 31 players they first select.
It didn't happen in 2011. They had to call up Aaron Cruden, Stephen Donald and Hosea Gear. And as it transpired, it was Donald, plucked from the wilderness who landed the killer blow in the final.
No one saw that coming, which is probably why a film was made. True events that are stranger than fiction are always compelling.
Perhaps 2011 was freakish. Maybe it was just random the All Blacks ended up with their fourth-choice first five-eighths playing 50 minutes of the final. Maybe ... but the All Blacks wouldn't bet on it. They wouldn't be tempted to put a bet on it given the history.
Daniel Carter is a classic red-flag athlete. He ripped his groin in 2011 and hasn't really had any luck since. Both 2012 and 2013 were massively disrupted by injuries and, after six months off this year, he broke a leg a month into his comeback.
Aaron Cruden is as tough as they come but, at 82kg, he's vulnerable to injury every time he plays. He had to limp out of the World Cup final and, given the volume of traffic that runs down the No10 channel these days, it's a toss of the coin whether Carter and Cruden will make it through a test in one piece.
That's why the selection of Beauden Barrett, who earned his first start in the No10 jersey last night, was the big talking point of the week. The All Blacks have reached the enviable position of having three first-fives who would, without question, walk into any other international side.
But the selection that was perhaps more important than Barrett was Colin Slade on the bench. If the worst happens in England next year, it could be Slade called in to save the day.
If the All Blacks can perform with their fourth-choice first-five on the field, they will be in supreme shape to retain their title.
The other key selection last night was Jeremy Thrush, who was thrust into the action at lock 25 minutes into the test after Sam Whitelock was forced off with injured ribs. Luke Romano, Patrick Tuipulotu and Dominic Bird are injured but Steve Hansen could click his fingers and bring in Thrush to provide the scrummaging solidity the All Blacks would need against Argentina.
It's the fact the All Blacks can go outside their 31 with such ease that gives them confidence. Their true strength is not just the quality they have in the squad, but the quality that sits just outside it.
Ryan Crotty, who played so well in Auckland before damaging his jaw, is another not actually in the 31. He'll slip further out of the running when Sonny Bill Williams returns but, while that will be tough on him, it will leave the All Blacks in the enviable position of knowing that if catastrophe strikes at the World Cup and they lose two world-class second-fives, they can call in a player as good as Crotty. It's the same at loose forward where the first cab off the rank is Victor Vito.
It might be hard to fathom right now that the likes of Slade and Thrush could become the big stories at the next World Cup.
It's hard to see disaster striking so hard in one position as it did at the last World Cup.
Hard, but not impossible.
- By Gregor Paul of the Herald on Sunday
