The Rugby Championship kicks off this weekend. Rugby writer Steve Hepburn identifies three reasons each of the teams has a chance of winning the title, and a thought or two on why each could come a cropper.
All Blacks
The Black List: The All Blacks have runs on the board. With 17 straight wins behind them, the men in black will go into the series with supreme confidence. Knowing how to win is a vital component in international sport.
Top Gear: Why have the All Blacks won 17 in a row? They have the best players. For all the subplots and drama in sport, winning comes down to simply having the top talent on the park. The likes of Julian Savea, Conrad Smith, Kieran Read and Sam Whitelock are first-rate operators.
The Mentalist: Many teams seem to fear the All Blacks. The form book goes right out the window as mind games start playing. Argentina has never beaten the All Blacks, the Wallabies last won a Bledisloe Cup series when Ken Barlow was still working, and the South African brains go into explosion mode when the All Blacks sail into view.
BUT
Wipeout: Every game, you are closer to a loss. In that run of 17 straight victories there have been plenty of close shaves. How Ireland did not beat the All Blacks last year, or even how England did not win one of three tests this year, is a puzzle. Surely a side must eventually get properly organised on the day, get the rub of the green and win.
Wallabies
Australia's Deadliest: It is relatively straightforward, is it not? The Waratahs won the Super rugby title. A large group of them are in the Wallabies. Therefore, they will win.
The Following: The Wallabies have been on a good run of late. An excellent end-of-year tour boosted confidence and then the French were dispatched 3-0. So the moons are coming into alignment.
Two and a Half Men (and more): Some class players are emerging from across the ditch. The likes of Michael Hooper, Israel Folau and Matt Toomua are blossoming into quality operators. They could take the next step over the next few weeks.
BUT
House of Cards: This is test rugby, where everything is bigger, the action is quicker and mistakes are seized upon. The Australians are still green around the edges and when the pressure comes on, they still have the tendency to fold like a pack of cards.
Springboks
Band of Brothers: Any side that has Bismarck and Jannie du Plessis in it has to be respected. Big and tough, they will anchor the Springbok scrum.
Flying High: Teams can talk about familiarity and medical advances but playing up at high altitude does take it out of teams. The Boks are used to it and will come home well.
The Victor of Dibley: You cannot keep a good man down. He may be nearer 40 than 30 but Victor Matfield has the aerial skills of Spiderman and knows all the short cuts around the park. Also has the ability to lift those around him. Worries over a knee injury but he will be right.
BUT
Antiques Roadshow: Matfield, Bakkies Botha, Jaque Fourie, Francois Louw, Morne Steyn. Is this a roll call for the washed-up and over-the-hill XV?
Pumas
Home on the Range: It is a long haul to Argentina. Getting there takes a day and more. So teams turn up tired and the Argentinians, who always play above themselves at home, can pounce.
The Wonder Years: This is their third year in the competition. They know what it is about. They have been playing a limited game but with more experience will get to know how to move the ball. This tactic must pay dividends.
Fair Go: The Argentinian football team had no luck at the World Cup, falling to those nasty Germans. So surely the rugby team must get a slice of good fortune.
BUT
An Idiot Abroad: A lost tribe was discovered in the backblocks of the Amazon this month. They are probably better travellers than the Pumas. Never seem to be able to win away from home.
