Hurricanes v Brumbies
Where: Wellington.
When: Tonight, 7.05pm.
Form: The Hurricanes have been the best team in Super Rugby for most of the season. They qualified top of the table with an 11-3 record, though they copped a towelling in Christchurch in the final round. The Brumbies claimed the sixth and final playoff spot. While their 7-7 record suggests mediocrity, they beat the Crusaders, Blues and Chiefs in the regular season, and they have won their past three playoff games against the Hurricanes.
Stats watch: The Hurricanes had a thoroughly impressive season on attack, leading the competition in tries, clean breaks, defenders beaten and metres gained. The Brumbies had the fourth-best lineout and were second in carries. They have never won a playoff game in New Zealand in nine attempts.
The key men: While the Hurricanes are missing new try-scoring star Fehi Fineanganofo, they are loaded from front to back. Asafo Aumua and Warner Dearns are weapons in the tight, Peter Lakai can do everything at No 8, and Cameron Roigard and Ruben Love form the best 9-10 duo in the competition. The Brumbies have experience and steel up front, Rob Valetini is a relentless machine alongside the classy Charlie Cale, and Tom Wright and Corey Toole can do damage out wide.
Meikle’s prediction: Unlikely to be close. Hurricanes 42-17.
Caleb Clarke has been in good form for the Blues.
Crusaders v Blues
Where: Christchurch.
When: Tomorrow, 4.35pm.
Form: The Crusaders qualified third (8-6) and enter the playoffs on the back of three straight wins in New Zealand derbies. The Blues also finished with eight wins but they have just been thumped in three straight derbies.
Stats watch: The Crusaders led Super Rugby in carries and rated highly in metres gained, defenders beaten (both second), tries and clean breaks (third). The Blues led the competition by crossing the gainline on 67% of their carries. But they have won just three of their past 26 games against the Crusaders.
The key men: Codie Taylor is the heartbeat of the Crusaders pack, rampaging No 8 Christian Lio-Willie and hybrid flanker Leicester Fainga’anuku are hard to stop, and David Havili and Sevu Reece bring veteran smarts to the backline. The Blues will want star winger Caleb Clarke and polished first five Stephen Perofeta to have big games, and forwards Anton Segner and Sam Darry can expect to be busy.
Meikle’s prediction: Everyone wants the Blues to win. Sadly, will not happen. Crusaders 33-26. But the Blues will still progress to the semifinals as the ‘‘lucky losers’’.
Quinn Tupaea (left) and Damian McKenzie will seek to lead the Chiefs to a fourth consecutive Super Rugby final. PHOTOS: NZ RUGBY/SMARTFRAME
Chiefs v Reds
Where: Hamilton.
When: Tomorrow, 7.05pm.
Form: An 11-3 record put the Chiefs — who have lost the past three finals — into the playoffs in second place. They just posted 59 points against the Blues. The Reds qualified fifth (8-6), ending the season with wins over Moana Pasifika and the Drua that followed a four-game losing streak.
Stats watch: The Chiefs were second in tries and clean breaks, and had the best lineout in the competition. They are on an 11-game winning streak against Australian teams in Hamilton. The Reds, who were third in tackling percentage and offloads, have never won a playoff game away from Suncorp Stadium.
The key men: Hooker Samisoni Taukei’aho has 10 tries for the Chiefs, Josh Lord and Tupou Vaa’i form an excellent second row, and Wallace Sititi can be damaging in the loose. Kingpin Damian McKenzie is back from concussion and Quinn Tupaea rules the midfield. The Reds will lean heavily on outstanding looses Harry Wilson and Fraser McReight, and Carter Gordon and Josh Flook need to be spectacular in the backs.
Meikle’s prediction: Aussie Aussie Aussie? Nah nah nah. Chiefs 35-12.
A reminder
These three games are technically called qualifying finals.
The three winners progress to the semifinals and will be joined by the highest-seeded loser.
Unlike last year’s nonsense situation, when the Chiefs got beaten in week one but were still allowed to host a semifinal, the losing team that qualifies for the semifinals will automatically drop to the fourth seeding.
Semifinal winners next weekend will progress to the final on June 20.
Super Rugby is set to drop to 10 teams next year, following the collapse of Moana Pasifika.
That surely means the playoffs will have just four teams — six out of 10 would be very generous — but there are rumours of a conference situation to ensure at least one game is in Australia.
