Reserve Bank keeps official cash rate unchanged

Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr.
Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr.
The Reserve Bank has as kept its official cash rate at 1 percent, in line with market expectations.

The decision to hold follows on from a bigger-than-expected 50 basis point cut in August.

Economists had expected the bank would leave the rate unchanged at today's review so as to allow the full effects of the August rate cut to kick in.

However, many expect the bank to resume rate cuts at its next opportunity on November 13, and again early next year.

The New Zealand dollar rallied by about 30 basis points to US63.35c in the minutes following today's release.

The bank said its monetary policy committee agreed that new information since the August monetary policy statement did not warrant a significant change to the monetary policy outlook.

"There remains scope for more fiscal and monetary stimulus, if necessary, to support the economy and maintain our inflation and employment objectives," it said in a statement.

The bank repeated its view that employment was around its maximum sustainable level, and that inflation remained within its target range but below the 2 percent mid-point.

Once again, the bank said global trade and other political tensions remained elevated and continue to subdue the global growth outlook, dampening demand for New Zealand's goods and services

Business confidence remained low in New Zealand, partly reflecting policy uncertainty and low profitability in some sectors, and is impacting investment decisions.

Global long-term interest rates remain near historically low levels, consistent with low expected inflation and growth rates into the future.

"Consequently, New Zealand interest rates can be expected to be low for longer," the bank said.

ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said a still lower OCR "remains very much on the cards".

"We continue to expect a 25bp cut in November, which today's statement and meeting summary leave the door open for.

"But by itself the statement suggests that a November cut isn't a dead certainty, even though we think it is the highly likely outcome," he said in a commentary.

"Beyond November we still see the risks as being for further easing next year, given the risks remain stacked towards the RBNZ deciding even more stimulus is need to meet its inflation and employment mandates," Tuffley said.

Add a Comment