Latest poll shows National and Act could form government

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File photo: Getty Images
National has dropped to 37% but still leads Labour on 33% in the latest 1 News / Kantar political poll.

The poll put the Green Party - which has faced leadership turbulence - on 9% of the vote, ACT on 11%, NZ First on 3% and Te Pāti Māori on 2%.

The numbers - if they held - would mean National and ACT together would have enough seats to form the next government.

Those figures would mean Labour would receive 44 seats and the Green Party 11 adding up to 55 - short of the 60 needed to form a government, even with the three seats from Te Pāti Māori.

It compares to the previous results at the end of May: National holding steady on 39%, Labour down on 35, Greens up on 10, ACT down on 7, and Te Pāti Māori holding the balance of power on 2%.

Then, Ardern had been on 33% and Luxon on 25% on 'most preferred prime minister' stakes.

National is fresh from its first party conference with Luxon as leader, where he announced a new welfare policy that has been roundly criticised by Ardern, Labour and the Greens, and some support service groups.

None of that would have been public when polling was taken, but the ongoing struggles with rising inflation, a worker shortage, a health sector in crisis and heightened international tensions will all have factored into respondents' concerns.

Between 30 July and 3 August 2022, 1023 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (504) and online, using online panels (519).

The maximum sampling error was approximately plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.

Among the parties outside Parliament, NZ First is up two points to three% and the Opportunities Party remains steady on 2%.

The poll also has the first appearance, at 1%, of Vision NZ.

The party is led by Hannah Tamaki, the wife of Brian Tamaki who founded Destiny Church and the Freedom and Rights Coalition, one of the key groups involved in the recent occupation at Parliament.

The New Conservative party, which also has links to the occupation and wider anti-government protest movement, remains on 1%.

Democrats for Social Credit round out the numbers also on 1%.

 - RNZ/NZ Herald