This unexpected outcome is due to National performing exceptionally well in the electorates - winning 45, based on the preliminary results. This means, provided they don’t lose any on the special votes, which will be announced at 2pm, with 50 seats overall they only have space for five list MPs.
At the top of the list of MPs would be deputy leader Nicola Willis followed by Paul Goldsmith.
A potential drop of three seats for National, and if their electorates all held as currently, could mean current MPs Melissa Lee, Brownlee and Andrew Bayly don’t make it back in. A drop of just two seats would see Lee return but for Brownlee, a drop of one is needed, as occurred in 2014.
Bayly is likely to enter Parliament regardless as a favourite to win the Port Waikato by-election. This would see Parliament get an overhang of one seat.
Steven Joyce expects National to lose two seats today
Former cabinet minister Steven Joyce told NewstalkZB’s Mike Hosking that he expects National to lose two seats.
”The advanced vote was as high as 41-42 per cent for National but, on the day, it was 36-37 per cent,” he said.
”Let’s say the special largely reflects what happened on the day, they may lose a couple of seats.
”However, if the specials include a lot of advanced voting, then it could be better for National.”
Joyce said he expects the international votes to break for the party as there was a lot of anger about New Zealanders being shut out of the country.
When asked if he thinks a government could be in place by next week, Joyce said that will largely depend on Winston.
”Seymour will be enthusiastic to get started, but Winston won’t mind a few days either way,” he said
”At this stage, he doesn’t have too many cards to play.”
His other alternative is to sit on the cross benches and vote against the government on a regular basis, which will be tool in which the public will get more and more frustrated with him.”
The electorate seats to watch
This shift in special vote results can also see changes in the electorate seats.
There are about seven electorate seats with a decent chance of flipping after the final votes have been counted.
The closest is in the typically Labour stronghold Te Atatū, where National’s Angee Nicholas is ahead of Labour’s Phil Twyford by just 31 votes. Labour has only lost the Auckland seat once since it was formed in 1978 and Twyford has held the seat since 2011.
The second-closest electorate race is in Nelson, where National’s Cameron Blair is ahead of Labour’s Rachel Boyack by 54 votes. Boyack claimed the seat in 2020 but prior to that, it had been held by former National MP Nick Smith since 1996.
In Banks Peninsula, National’s Vanessa Weenink holds an 83-seat lead over Labour incumbent Tracey McLellan. The seat, which changed to Port Hills between 2008 and 2020, has only been held once by National. Former Labour MP Ruth Dyson held both forms of the electorate from 1999 until 2020 when she retired.
Another seat that could flip is Mt Albert, another Labour stronghold that MP Helen White currently holds by just 106 votes over National’s Melissa Lee. The electorate has elected only Labour Party MPs since it was first contested at the 1946 election.
It was vacated after former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern stepped down this year. Ardern won it in 2020 with 72 per cent of the vote and a more than 21,000 vote lead over Lee. Ardern also won a large majority in 2017. Lee would likely re-enter Parliament regardless based on her high list ranking.
Another close seat, but less likely to shift, is New Lynn, where new National candidate Paulo Garcia holds a 483-vote lead over Labour incumbent Deborah Russell.
New Lynn is yet another electorate previously regarded as safe for Labour, held by the party - with a few boundary variations - ever since it was formed at the 1963 election.
Russell has a high enough list ranking to be elected even if she loses the seat.
There are also two interesting battles taking place in the Māori electorates.
In Te Tai Tokerau Labour’s Kelvin Davis holds a 487-vote lead over Te Pāti Māori’s Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. Davis has held that seat since 2014.
There is a similarly-close contest in Tāmaki Makaurau, where Labour’s Peeni Henare is ahead of Te Pāti Māori’s Takutai Tarsh Kemp by 495 votes.
Henare has also held that seat since 2014.
Other close seats to watch include Rongotai, West Coast-Tasman and Hutt South.
