No more quakes than usual: Dunedin geologist

Richard Norris
Richard Norris
The number of earthquakes around the world is not increasing but it might feel like it is because they have been hitting heavily populated areas, geologist Prof Richard Norris, of the University of Otago, says.

Christchurch, Haiti (in 2010), Chile (in 2010), Italy (in 2009) and now Japan had been hit by quakes relatively near built-up areas, with devastating consequences.

Quakes over magnitude 7 were not uncommon, but they had little or no adverse effect on human life in the "middle of nowhere".

Examples included northwest China, the Aleutian Islands southwest of Alaska, and offshore east of Russia.

Prof Norris said people, and by extension local and national authorities, tended to take action only after a major event that killed people.

This meant rebuilt Christchurch would be almost quake-proof, despite the chances of another big quake in the city being extremely low.

Christchurch's seismic risk, including the threat of liquefaction, was well flagged for at least 20 years before last year's September 4 quake, Prof Norris said.

New Zealand has had its fair share of remote earthquakes with no fatalities.

Prof Norris suggested that had a 6.8-magnitude earthquake in 1994, west of Christchurch near the headwaters of the Rakaia River, been closer to the city, damage would have been significant.

The Southern Alps had many quakes which, while significant geologically, had not affected people.

Earthquakes were quickly forgotten by the general population when there was little damage.

Prof Norris, whose quake talk to the Mornington Probus group was reported by the Otago Daily Times last week, said he had received much positive feedback from his warning about Dunedin's seismic risk.

The only one negative response was a letter to the ODT suggesting scare-mongering.

People wanted information on their local seismic risk and appreciated those risks being put into context, he said.

Yesterday, he fielded inquiries about Dunedin's tsunami risk: Dunedin was relatively safe from tsunami, as its fault system could not generate a quake as powerful as that last Friday off Japan.

It was conceivable the city could be threatened by a tsunami generated off the east coast of the North Island, or from Chile, he said.

The prospect of a quake as big as magnitude 9, on land-based faults, including the Alpine Fault, was extremely remote because New Zealand's faults were too shallow.

The 7.8 "strange earthquake" in Dusky Sound (in 2009) transferred little energy to land, so caused minimal damage.

It was still under investigation by GNS Science, Prof Norris said.

Of the chance of a large quake this Sunday - as predicted by weather forecaster Ken Ring - Prof Norris would "happily go and stay in Christchurch".

It was easy to correlate the data to establish no significant relationship between the moon and major quakes, he said.

eileen.goodwin@odt.co.nz

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