A forecasting model developed by University of Otago
researchers to predict where atrocities might occur could be
used to prevent future conflicts.
The model, which uses determining factors such as political
instability and neighbouring state conflicts, has gained
international attention after presentations in Washington DC,
Berlin, Paris, and Canberra.
Otago University National Centre for Peace and Conflict
Studies researcher Dr Charles Butcher said the ''Atrocity
Forecasting Project'' predicted atrocities now happening in
the Central African Republic.
The model placed the country at the top of its list for
at-risk states for genocide/politicide for the period
2011-15. The model could be used for predicting genocide and
could help prevent instances of mass violence, Dr Butcher
''One of our primary aims was to provide policy-makers with
an early-warning system that complemented shorter-term
monitoring and peace-building efforts,'' he said.