Student numbers at the University of Otago are expected to drop for the fourth year in a row.
The expected decrease is a turnaround from earlier in the year when vice-chancellor Prof Harlene Hayne hailed a small increase on last year's numbers as ''fantastic'' news.
The expectation of a small decrease was included in the university's forecast for this year, tabled at yesterday's council meeting.
The report said 18,586 core equivalent fulltime students (efts) were expected at the institution for the full year, down on 18,600 last year.
This would represent a more than 5% decline from the 19,661 core efts enrolled when numbers peaked in 2010.
Prof Hayne told the Otago Daily Times it was still possible there would be a small increase on last year.
''The variation between what we were forecasting earlier in the year and now is well within the normal bounds of forecasting variation, and is due to second semester enrolments in general being very slightly softer than initially allowed for,'' she said.
The declines were due to ''bold'' decisions in 2011 and 2012 aimed at improving academic performance and a strengthening economy (meaning more people are in work and fewer are studying).
''It is important to remember that following the initial impact of higher entry standards in 2011, we have seen first-year enrolment growth at Otago in 2012, 2013 and again in 2014.''
The university had previously budgeted for 18,918 efts this year and chief financial officer Sharon van Turnhout said in a report the difference was expected to cost the university $4.138 million.
At the meeting, she congratulated university divisions for making savings which had largely offset the loss in fee income.
But other factors meant it was now expecting an operating surplus of $16.183 million, which was $4.414 million below budget.
In a separate report, Ms van Turnhout spoke of difficult financial times ahead as the university sought to fund its more than $600 million ''priority development'' building plan.
''The university is under significant financial pressure. Providing an acceptable level of funding for the academic divisions while maintaining a reasonable level of operating surplus will be difficult in 2015.
''Any decline in the operating surplus will reduce the funding available for capital expenditure, which could have an impact on the timing of capital works projects in the priority development plan,'' she said.
