Taking aim at tobacco

In the year 2025 any smokers still drawing breath will find their habit on the edge of extinction. At least, that is the plan being promoted by "Aspire 2025" - a group of experts led by a professor of medicine from the University of Otago. Mark Price reports.

If smokers think they have been alienated and ostracised by law changes in the past, just wait until they see what might be in store for them next.

Aspire 2025 makes no bones about it.

It wants a "tobacco-free" New Zealand by 2025.

And, if it gets its way, the next 14 years will become progressively tougher for the tobacco industry and for smokers who persist.

The members of Aspire 2025 are working on a plan to make New Zealand the first country in the world to end the use of tobacco.

But, will the New Zealand public and its lawmakers be willing to put its plans into action?

Aspire 2025's leader is Prof Richard Edwards, head of the public health department of the University of Otago's Wellington School of Medicine.

He considers there is "very strong" support, even among smokers, to get the smoking "endgame" under way.

He cites a survey he had published in the New Zealand Medical Journal in 2009 showing 46% of Maori smokers and 44% of other smokers supported the idea of the Government setting a date, in 10 years, to ban cigarette sales, provided effective nicotine-delivery substitutes were available.

"These are quite radical suggestions and it's surprisingly strong, the public support.

"Whether there is political support is another issue.

"But showing that there is public support is, I think, the first step to obtaining that political support."

Earlier this year, the Maori Affairs select committee's inquiry into the tobacco industry recommended the 2025 "end date" to Parliament.

The Government noted in its response, however, the 2025 date was "intended to communicate an aspirational goal and not a commitment to the banning of smoking altogether by 2025".

But while the Government carefully avoided committing to the date, Prof Edwards considers the inquiry and the Government's response were game-changers.

"It changed the game from one of, say, just gradually trying to tackle smoking ... to saying we need to do something about this and do something about this fast."

He considers the public signalled its willingness to go along with major law changes on tobacco use by readily accepting the 2004 ban on smoking in schools, workplaces, pubs and restaurants.

"I think the same thing will happen with this, if there's good debate about it.

"People will start to see this is a credible idea.

"It is a really good aspiration to be the first country to get rid of tobacco completely."

Prof Edwards and his team of medical experts are investigating some quite radical ways to achieve this - the most contentious perhaps being their suggestion of a squeeze on tobacco imports.

"As well as all the other measures - increasing the price of cigarettes and education and reducing advertising and so on - let's just reduce the supply of tobacco progressively.

"That's what we have called the sinking-lid approach.