Positive view on four listed retailers

Suzanne Kinnaird
Suzanne Kinnaird
Forsyth Barr was maintaining a positive view on four listed retailers, believing they still offered attractive long-term value, broker Suzanne Kinnaird said.

Although Pumpkin Patch and Briscoe Group had received small downgrades, they both offered good long-term value along with Hallenstein Glasson and Michael Hill International.

Forsyth Barr had a recommendation of "accumulate" on all four companies.

"While the retail sector is currently going through a softening of earnings expectations, we believe this is already in Pumpkin Patch's share price which is more than 25% below our valuation."

Pumpkin Patch continued to be one of the better operators, Ms Kinnaird said.

Briscoe Group's second-quarter sales fell 1.9%, a reversal of the first quarter's growth of 7.4%. Seasonal factors appeared to have been partly responsible. However, the company expected its next first-half profit to be up by 24% year-on-year, at around $9.1 million before a $2.6 million one-off deferred tax change. That would leave the first-half result flat.

Forsyth Barr slightly downgraded its full-year profit forecast from $26 million to $24 million but believed the company still offered good value, she said.

Hallenstein Glasson expected its before-tax profit for the year to August 1 to be between $28.3 million and $28.8 million, mainly driven by stronger gross margins. Ms Kinnaird has upgraded her profit forecast to match guidance, although she was slightly cautious on margins next year given the softening of the New Zealand dollar.

Michael Hill was closing eight of its 17 stores in the United States. "We have scaled back our US expansion assumptions and have also lowered forecast Australasian margins due to the rising gold price, reducing our valuation by 7c a share. Our recommendation remains accumulate given the discount to our valuation, although this assumes substantial and profitable store expansions in Canada and, to a lesser extent, the US, which may not be reflected in the share price until there is evidence of solid progress."

Forsyth Barr regarded Restaurant Brands and The Warehouse Group as both having an uninspiring growth outlook.

The continuing upgrades to Restaurant Brands' forecasts was almost all due to KFC, where store refurbishments and process and menu improvements continued to deliver exceptional results.

Pizza Hut had stabilised but was underperforming and, along with Starbucks, would be made smaller or divested.

A slow start to colder weather and continuing falls in music and DVD sales affected The Warehouse, where market share continued to decline. Management believed the improvement in the Warehouse Stationery business was sustainable, Ms Kinnaird said.

 

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