The relatively high value of the New Zealand dollar is providing motorists with some protection from soaring petrol prices, but warnings came that a 6c a litre fall in pump prices yesterday could be the last.
Brent crude oil price moved down at the weekend to $US108 ($NZ137) to $US109 a barrel from lvels of more than $US120 a barrel.
Market experts feel the strengthening of the United States dollar is the key reason for the dip in global crude oil prices.
The factors - such as the socioeconomic crisis in West Asia and the demand-supply scenario - that have pushed crude prices north are still not entirely clear.
Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms said New Zealand motorists had been spared from much higher prices because of the strength of the New Zealand dollar.
The West Texas oil price was $US97 a barrel yesterday but was forecast to rise to $US122.50 by December. The Brent was forecast to rise to $US125 a barrel by September before falling to $US120 in December and remaining their until late March.
"Imagine if oil was $US150 a barrel and our dollar was US60c.
We wouldn't be worrying about a petrol price of $2 a litre; we would be thinking about $3," Mr Timms said.
New Zealand was also being helped by high interest rates, which supported our high currency, he said. However, Reserve Bank governor Alan Bollard has indicated rates are unlikely to change this year and that the first hike in the official cash rate could be early 2012.
Some help could come if the central bank raised the OCR, but that might be nine months away, Mr Timms said.
The fall in Brent price has come ahead of an empowered group of ministers meeting scheduled for Thursday (NZ time) to discuss the financial health of oil-marketing companies and contemplate a revision in retail prices of petroleum products.
Crude prices were unlikely to slide further from current levels and should consolidate at these support levels, Mr Timms said.
The oil price had increased 15% since late February and Craigs was recommending all portfolios should include some exposure to oil and gas.
Nuclear power was a vital source of energy in many regions - accounting for 20% of electricity in the United States and 30% in Europe and Japan, he said.
China had intended increasing its nuclear generation from 1% of electricity to 6%.
However, the Fukushima nuclear disaster had raised the prospect of increased reliance on fossil fuels, or a more rapid shift towards renewables in some countries.
"Either outcome brings with it the prospect of higher oil prices.
With fuel being a key driver of inflation at times - even if it is often ignored by central banks - including oil stocks in a portfolio is a natural hedge to rising living costs," Mr Timms said.
