Doubts about Key's claim

Finance Minister Bill English with the Budget he will present to Parliament today. Photo NZPA.
Finance Minister Bill English with the Budget he will present to Parliament today. Photo NZPA.
Some last-minute cynicism has emerged in business circles as Finance Minister Bill English prepares to release his Budget this afternoon.

Prime Minister John Key this week said the Budget would forecast strong growth in wages and jobs over the next two years while keeping up the pressure on the public service to save money.

Mr Key said the growth in average weekly wages was expected to "well and truly" outstrip inflation and the Treasury was also forecasting strong employment growth.

But Otago Chamber of Commerce chief executive John Christie questioned how Mr Key had come to that conclusion.

"How can the Government grow the economy and grow wages? Businesses grow the economy by the Government setting the policy, rules and laws."

The only way the Government grew the economy and wages was through increased spending, something that should not happen.

However, the Government could help the economy by ensuring it had a strong "buy local" policy rather than allowing its departments to buy product offshore, he said.

Increased government spending was the last thing the economy needed at a time when it had to curtail its spending to lower its debt liabilities.

The New Zealand Chambers of Commerce had been long advocating the Government needed to make some hard policy decisions, Mr Christie said.

Otago-Southland Employers Association chief executive John Scandrett said regional employers wanted government action on a forward cohesive economic plan that would stimulate long-term balanced economic growth.

"For too long they have had to live with uncertainty around the economic negatives associated with domestically generated increasing debt, runaway consumption levels and excessive government spending.

"A strong refocus on saving, lifting our gross domestic product levels and improving our international competitiveness should be flavours of the month, not to mention the years ahead."

Employers were looking for indications of a further cut in corporate tax rates, possibly to 25%, some meaningful and effective new export incentives and a significantly increased support package across science and innovation, he said.

The added spin-out of new high-technology companies could only help diversify the economic structure of the country, helping create new jobs and adding value alongside the traditional agricultural, manufacturing and tourism sector returns, Mr Scandrett said.

Mr Christie also called for some clear signs the Government was prepared to address the growing skill crisis that would only worsen as the economy improved.

There was a lead-in time of three to four years in some trades.

Like Mr Scandrett, Mr Christie also wanted support for the export sector, as he believed the country was not exporting as much as it could.

Mr Key said the Budget was charting a return to surplus while funding the earthquake recovery efforts in Christchurch and would detail changes to KiwiSaver, Working for Families and interest-free student loans.

"They will all be over time, and dare I say it, reasonably modest, I think, insomuch that I don't think people have anything to be frightened of. There will be changes that will save the Government money and allow us to have a zero budget and get back into surplus quickly."

The Government aimed to return the country to surplus earlier than 2015-16 forecast by Treasury. Mr English warned that by the end of June the surplus could be as high as $17 billion, a record for New Zealand.

Mr Key said the country had weathered finance company collapses, the global financial crisis and earthquakes but had charted a "moderate path" through it.

Financial markets will be watching for the response from credit rating agencies Standard and Poor's and Fitch. Both agencies are likely to express support for the Budget's cost-cutting endeavours but retain a negative outlook on the country's sovereign rating.

dene.mackenzie@odt.co.nz

 

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