Rating agency Standard and Poor's is warning that New Zealand is one of several Asia-Pacific countries likely to experience export-driven slowdowns either through weaker demand, lower export prices or both.
S&P is under fire in the United States for downgrading the sovereign debt in the world's largest economy.
Sharemarkets took a hit yesterday before some recovery but late yesterday, US futures were well down indicating that US markets would open significantly lower last night.
S&P Australia primary credit analyst Elena Okorotchenko said there was no immediate impact on Asia-Pacific sovereign ratings resulting from the lowering of the US rating to AA-plus from AAA.
However, the US rating change, together with the weakening sovereign creditworthiness in Europe, pointed to an increasingly uncertain and challenging environment ahead.
"The potential longer-term consequences of a weaker financing environment, slower growth and higher risk aversion are negative factors for Asia-Pacific sovereign ratings."
For the moment, the generally stable outlooks for Asia-Pacific governments, with the exception of New Zealand, Japan, Vietnam and the Cook Islands, was supported by sound domestic demand, relatively healthy corporate-household sectors, plentiful external liquidity and high domestic savings rates, she said.
But given the interconnectivity of global markets, an unexpectedly sharp disruption in developed world financial markets could change the picture.
It could lead the US and European economies into deep contractions again, or further delay their recoveries, Ms Okorotchenko said.
In that scenario, the experience of the global financial crisis of 2008-09 showed that export-dependent economies with large exposures to the US and Europe would feel the most pronounced economic impacts.
"It's not likely things would be very different this time."
The US and Western Europe remained significant markets for Asia-Pacific exports, even if their importance had declined in the past couple of years.
Specifically, Thailand, Taiwan, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Japan, Australia and New Zealand were likely to experience the export-driven slowdown, she said.
Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms said there was no doubt exports to the US could be affected by an economic slowdown but the saving grace for the country was that its exports were mainly commodities and not finished products.
Australia and China were the top markets for New Zealand and China's economy was growing aggressively with the growing middle class seeking higher quality products from countries like Australia.
There was still good demand for Australian minerals and resources. Although the Australian economy was not particularly strong, again commodities from New Zealand were in high demand, Mr Timms said.
Ms Okorotchenko also warned the Asia-Pacific governments that had weaker external positions could come under pressure as international liquidity tightened. Some might require additional external assistance to prevent sharp economic adjustments.
Those with financial systems reliant on offshore markets might face reduced liquidity and a heightening of refinancing risk in the near term.
To varying degrees, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Fiji, Australia, New Zealand, Korea and Indonesia might be affected, she said.
"The adverse impact on Asia-Pacific in that scenario would likely require governments to use their balance sheets to support their economies and finance sectors once again. In our opinion, most governments would promptly oblige."
Some, like New Zealand, continued to bear the scars of the recent downturn, Ms Okorotchenko said.
If a renewed slowdown came, it would likely create a deeper and more prolonged impact than the last one.
The implications for sovereign creditworthiness in Asia-Pacific would likely be more negative than previously experienced and a larger number of negative rating actions would follow, she said.
Prime Minister John Key believes his Government has put the country in the right position to be able to cope with the downgrade of US Government debt.
New Zealand was not immune from any global slowdown that might result from the reverberations of the US downgrade and continuing volatility in Europe, but the Government had done all the right things, he told TVNZ's Breakfast programme.
"The Minister of Finance [Bill English] and Treasury have been very conservative in the last few years, in fact we've borrowed a lot more than we've needed at good low rates, so actually we're well-positioned there.
"The worse scenario for us is if the US goes back into some sort of recession ... I don't think it's clear what happens to New Zealand from that perspective."
Mr Key told Radio NZ the downgrade signalled the US was no longer as sound an investment as it had been. It sent a clear message the US needed to get its books in order.
Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan said Australia's economy was in good shape and could cope with the worst the world could throw.
He had consulted regularly with Australian regulators, the Treasury and finance ministers from the G20 group of advanced economies on the overseas turmoil, AAP reported.
Australian economic fundamentals remained strong and International Monetary Fund data, released on Sunday, clearly showed that, he said.
"What Australians can have confidence in is the fact that we are in the strongest part of the global economy, the Asia-Pacific, and our strength here, particularly in Australia, is far stronger than just about any other developed economy."
