Worrisome world keeps rate steady

Dominick Stephens
Dominick Stephens
Messy conditions in global financial markets were the dominant concern yesterday as the Reserve Bank kept its official cash rate unchanged at 2.5%.

The central bank reiterated that domestic economic conditions and emerging inflation pressures warranted higher interest rates.

However, the deteriorating global economic and financial market situation called for a later start and a possibly lower peak to the OCR cycle.

Economists yesterday were picking the Reserve Bank to start lifting its rates in January or March.

BNZ economist Stephen Toplis said the "entire picture of carnage" that Europe and the United States presented had driven the Reserve Bank to distraction.

It came as no surprise that the bank held its OCR.

"But not only did the Reserve Bank stay on hold, it produced a more downbeat statement about the state of the world and the accompanying inflationary pressure than we would have expected.

"More dovish it may be, but we find it hard to fault in these uncertain times."

The BNZ expected the first rate increase to come in March and to be 0.25%, with further increases so the OCR peaked at 4%.

However, Mr Toplis was not ruling out more aggressive pricing by the Reserve Bank, with an interest rate peak of 5%.

Westpac was picking the first OCR increase to come in January.

Chief economist Dominick Stephens said that for New Zealand, the most important implication had been a sharp rise in the credit default swap (CDS) spreads for Australian and New Zealand banks. That meant New Zealand banks would now have to pay higher premiums if they borrowed from overseas.

The crucial issue was how long the CDS spreads would remain elevated, he said.

As it stood, New Zealand's main banks were in a better funding position than during the global financial crisis and were not under pressure to borrow from overseas.

But the longer the spreads remained high, the more likely it was that banks would have to pay the higher costs of funds. At that point, interest rates would rise independently of the OCR.

"The bottom line is that domestic conditions already warrant higher interest rates and, at some point, the Reserve Bank is going to have to hike into a less-than-ideal global environment."

However, that environment had become much more perilous in the last few months, and the complex interaction of financial markets and policymakers made it impossible to anticipate just how that would be resolved, Mr Stephens said.

Reserve Bank governor Alan Bollard said in a statement that New Zealand domestic economic activity had surprised on the upside.

Continued high export commodity prices and, in time, reconstruction in Canterbury were expected to provide impetus to demand in the future.

Largely because the New Zealand economy had been doing better than many others, the New Zealand dollar had appreciated since the June statement by the Reserve Bank, he said.

The high level of the dollar was having a dampening influence on some parts of the tradeable sector and on imported inflation.

Annual headline inflation continued to be above the bank's 1% to 3% target band, Dr Bollard said.

However, much of the current spike in inflation had been driven by last year's increase in the rate of GST and would be temporary.

Wage and price setters should focus on underlying inflation, which, while rising, was estimated to be near 2%.

dene.mackenzie@odt.co.nz

Add a Comment