The ANZ business survey being released on Thursday could
settle some scores on the economic front, as well as colour
the Reserve Bank's rhetoric at next week's Monetary Policy
So, too, could the various pointers on inflation during the
week, along with merchandise trade, building consents and
credit aggregates for the month of October.
Any bit of it could prove influential at those supposed
crossroads, BNZ senior economist Craig Ebert said yesterday.
"With so many mixed messages on how the New Zealand economy
is faring, we're all scratching our heads, hankering for that
next piece of news."
There was a good chance that the ANZ survey (rebranded from
the National Bank survey) would show increased confidence.
What was less than certain was what occurred in the ANZ's
survey of own activity. What could be more instructive than
the overall business activity, could be the survey's
"Granted, these also appeared to be sound in October,
"However, they were very patchy by sector. How this all
balances out in November could be important following the
uncertainty that was stoked by the jump in the Household
Labour Force Survey measure of unemployment."
Today, the Reserve Bank would release its survey of
expectations. That would divulge business and analysts' views
on near-term economic growth, as measured by GDP, and
employment expectations on annual inflation for a one-year
and two-year period.
Also today, October merchandise trade statistics would be
released with the BNZ expecting a 6% annual fall in export
values and a 3% drop in imports on a year. This would be
mainly due to a commodity price correction rather than any
While it added up to a monthly deficit of $336 million, it
was less than the $536 shortfall expected by the market and
slowed the worsening in the annual trade deficit, Mr Ebert
"We expect Friday afternoon's credit aggregates to keep
picking up, with all eyes on the extent to which this is
still occurring in the mortgage market against the backdrop
of a reheating housing market.
"Like house price inflation, don't underestimate the degree
to which the Reserve Bank is keeping a close eye on the money
and credit aggregates."
While progression on that front could be interpreted as good
news, it could also warn of an unhealthy resort to debt, Mr