Exports to China top influence on deficit

Craig Ebert
Craig Ebert
The burgeoning role of China in New Zealand's export boom could not be overstated, BNZ senior economist Craig Ebert said yesterday.

Statistics New Zealand figures showed New Zealand reported its smallest October trade deficit since the mid-1990s as milk powder, butter and cheese shipments drove exports to a record for the month.

The trade deficit narrowed to $168 million last month, from $216 million in September, narrowing the annual trade gap to $1 billion from $1.55 billion. The trade figures compared with a forecast deficit of $350 million in the month and $1.14 billion in the year, in a Reuters survey.

Exports rose by 23%, or $783 million, to $4.2 billion in October compared with the corresponding month last year, of which $690 million reflected increased exports of milk powder, butter and cheese, which jumped by 85% to $1.5 billion.

Mr Ebert said the upbeat merchandise trade figures did not surprise him as much as they did the market.

''We thought there were good reasons to expect exports to pick up the pace. And they did so in October, in spades. This, along with steady growth in imports, was very positive in regards to GDP growth.''

China was the biggest destination for New Zealand's exports last month, taking $1.1 billion worth, up 133% from a year earlier. Shipments to Australia fell 13% to $794 million. On an annual basis, Australia is still the largest market, taking $9.18 billion of exports, while China took $8.87 billion and the US took $4.1 billion.

Mr Ebert said exports to China had been a powerful force for several years. However, in the three months to October, goods exported to China accelerated by 78%. Exports to Europe were essentially flat.

Australia's importance as an export market was slipping, not helped by the top exports, crude oil and gold, having low prices.

''This should at least be lessening the proportionate pain from the rising New Zealand dollar-Australian dollar cross we've been seeing. Less of a big deal, in other words,'' he said.

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