There would be no surprise if listed New Zealand retailers started issuing profit downgrades following the release yesterday of flat electronic card transactions data, Craigs Investment Partners broker Greg Easton said.
Statistics New Zealand figures showed retail sector card transactions were ''effectively flat'' in December, and largely in line with market exceptions.
With the exception of durables spending, the annual pace of ex-auto retail cards transactions remained moderate.
Last week, The Warehouse Group issued a profit downgrade, saying Christmas shopping had not been as busy as expected.
Mr Easton would not be surprised if other retailers followed suit.
''The 64-million-dollar question is how many of the card transactions were online.''
Briscoe Group managing director Rod Duke had earlier said the buying power of the group meant Briscoes could offer customers a similar price to those online.
Mr Easton said online shopping might have negatively affected main street retailers.
''You just have to look at where the spending was in December.
Hospitality spending continued to grow strongly, a sign consumers have the confidence to spend on discretionary items.
But where are they spending?''Also, hardware spending was strong, providing benefit to companies such as Mitre 10, he said.
ASB economist Christina Leung said petrol prices fell about 6% in December, with that flowing through to a 3.2% fall in fuel sales.
The category also captured other service station spending such as coffee and snacks.
With fuel prices likely to be even lower in January, the spending category would likely soften further in the near term.
''Weaker fuel prices do leave more discretionary income available to spend so a sustained and substantial drop in fuel prices is likely to give spending in other categories a boost over time.''
Spending on durables - washing machines, refrigerators and furniture - dropped for the second month in a row.
Ms Leung said annual durables spending growth had been lower in 2014, in keeping with the overall slower pace of house sales.
With the housing market strengthening at the end of 2014, further housing momentum could lead to an improvement in spending in the short term.
Apparel spending jumped 2.4% in December, in part because of improved weather in December.
The latest card transactions reinforced consumer momentum remained moderate.
Ongoing employment growth and strong net migration would continue to support spending growth.
''Lower fuel prices will help support overall spending volumes in time, though is dampening the reported dollar spend at present through reduced fuel spending.''
