Younger worker shortage warning

Natalie Jackson.
Natalie Jackson.
Southland's workplaces may not be showing it yet, but consultant Dr Natalie Jackson is warning young workers will soon be in short supply in the province.

Just five years from now Southland is expected to be short of 4000 workers, assuming all existing jobs remain and there is medium economic growth. By 2031, it could be as many as 12,000.

And the issue was not only confined to Southland, research indicating New Zealand could be down one million workers by 2031, with the shortage more marked in provincial areas than in cities, Dr Jackson said.

''This is the next big challenge ahead nationally and globally. We are moving into a post-demographic-growth society where population growth is slowing and ending. Once you get a quarter of your population over the age of 55 they don't deliver too many babies.''

Demographics is the study of how births, deaths, migration and other factors affect society.

Formerly a professor at Waikato University, Dr Jackson now runs her own consultancy business assisting employers, industry groups and local authorities to come to grips with a changing world.

She contributed to the Southland Labour Market Assessment Report 2014-2031 commissioned by Southland's economic development agency, Venture Southland, and visited Invercargill recently to host seminars for employers.

Yesterday, she was in Queenstown as a guest speaker at business advisers PwC New Zealand's annual conference.

The looming shortage of workers was caused by the retirement of the ''baby-boomers'' - people born between 1946 and 1964, Dr Jackson said.

While many baby-boomers worked beyond 65 - she is herself 65 - Dr Jackson said very few people worked beyond 70.

Although it might not seem obvious yet, Southland's employment statistics were already showing signs of being baby-boomer top heavy, she said. For every four employed people (excluding students) in the 15-24 age range there were 10 aged 55-65.

There was a small ''baby blip'' in 2002 and those children would be entering the job market in about 2020, Dr Jackson said.

''I call them the `thank God you're here generation'. But they won't be enough to change the outlook markedly.''

With one million baby-boomers in New Zealand, it was very important for organisations to think ahead, Dr Jackson said.

Her seminars gave employers the tools to do that.

''What are the skills my business needs? What are the 'mission critical' roles which will be hard to fill? What jobs are hard to fill? How do we create a contemporary workplace in which young people want to work?

''What jobs will people want or be physically able to do when they are older? How do we make our workplaces more flexible so that we can accommodate part-timers?

''It's not about saying something can't be done, it's about how to ensure it is done efficiently for the business and its staff ... We simply have to do things differently.''

New Zealand councils, particularly those outside the major cities, also needed to rethink their plans, keeping in mind overall population growth would likely be minimal.

Too many subscribed to the ''build it and they will come'' theory, she said.

''I spend a lot of my time telling councils if [they] are not going to have a big population in the future, don't build the bridge or road or facility. If they are not going to have the population [to support it] why load up the young ratepayers of the future?''

allison.beckham@odt.co.nz

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