All eyes on Australian lending rate decision

The Reserve Bank of Australia's decision on whether to cut its official lending rate to 2% today is likely to dominate market thinking.

But there is plenty of other data out in New Zealand, Australia and the United States to provide snapshots on how each economy is trending.

Craigs Investment Partners broker Peter McIntyre said Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens had been successful in talking down the value of the Australian dollar in recent times, despite having no data to work with.

Business conditions were not improving in Australia and in some cases, they were getting worse.

''I would be very surprised if there is not a rate cut tomorrow.''

That would give some strength to the New Zealand dollar but with the GlobalDairyTrade auction this week, dairy prices were expected to fall again, he said.

Some parts of the economy were worsening at a faster rate than some people had been thinking and there was now an expectation the New Zealand Reserve Bank would cut its official cash rate later this year.

However, Australia was again New Zealand's biggest export market and when business intentions weakened across the Tasman, it was not good news for New Zealand exporters to Australia.

''It's adding another thread to those already unravelling. Outside of Auckland, the economy is losing its steam,'' Mr McIntyre said.

Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens said the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its cash rate by 0.25% at its first meeting of 2015 but left rates unchanged at its March and April meetings, despite adopting a strong easing bias.

The minutes to the April meeting showed the bank contemplated a further cut but held off in order to get more data and allow time for the economy to respond to the February cut.

Notably, the minutes also pointed to a likely downgrade to the bank's forecasts stemming from weaker prospects for business investment, he said.

''We expect the bank to finally deliver a follow-up 0.25% cut at its May meeting, taking the cash rate to 2%.''

The March inflation data was essentially benign and although other domestic data had been reasonable - jobs in particular - the sharp fall in commodity prices since the start of the year and the high Australian dollar posed a barrier to growth.

The May statement on monetary policy would probably include lower growth forecasts, Mr Stephens said.

Also out today will be Australia's March trade balance. Westpac expects the trade account to be in deficit for the 12th consecutive month.

The deficit was expected to narrow to $A800 million ($NZ832.25 million), down from a deficit of $A1.3 billion in February.

Out tomorrow in Australia will be the retail sales figures and retail trade data.

Nominal retail sales for the three months to March were heading for another robust gain of 1.2% compared with 1.3% in the December quarter, where sales were boosted by the release of the new iPhone.

On Thursday, Australian unemployment and employment figures would be released and Mr Stephens remained cautious of the monthly volatility in the labour force survey.

The original data for March was more negative than usual and yet the resulting changes to the seasonal adjustment provided a stronger employment gain.

Westpac's forecast for a fall of 10,000 in total employment would mean annual growth in total easing back to 1.5% annually, in line with what the Westpac Jobs Index was suggesting, he said.

In April, there was normally a moderation in the working age population growth in Australia.

Along with a moderate drop in the participation rate to 64.7%, that would be enough to limit the rise in the unemployment rate to 6.2%.

Later in the week, the US non-farm payrolls figures were expected to show a second consecutive monthly gain below 200,000 in April.

The UK has a general election on Thursday.

The Bank of England's scheduled policy meeting is set for the same day but it is delaying the announcement of its decision until May 11.

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