World Cup a boost to retail

Confident consumers hit the shops. Photo by Christine O'Connor.
Confident consumers hit the shops. Photo by Christine O'Connor.
The co-hosting of the Cricket World Cup this year helped a surge in retail sales for the three months ended March.

Statistics New Zealand figures released yesterday showed retail sales rose 2.7% in the quarter, stronger than market expectations.

The pick-up was broad-based and all 15 categories recorded rises for the quarter.

ASB economist Nathan Penny said generally, spending patterns were in line with his expectations, only higher.

Households continued to report above-average levels of confidence.

In particular, that was reflected in the 8.9% lift in electronic and electronic goods sales.

The category was running at an annual increase of nearly 20%, also with high confidence, and might reflect the strength of the New Zealand dollar plus the high level of uptake in new technology.

As expected, accommodation spending spiked with the co-hosting of the CWC and a generally buoyant tourism sector, he said.

Food and beverage services posted another solid increase on top of recent strong quarters, taking annual growth to 9.2%.

''With the spending lift from the CWC a one-off, we expect some pull-back in spending over the second quarter. Petrol prices have lifted, which will undo some of the earlier lift in disposable incomes.

''That said, the remainder of retail indicators are healthy and underlying spending should remain buoyant.''

Westpac senior economist Felix Delbruck said the modest rise in the dollar after the release of the sales figures might reflect the mixed messages from the survey - turbo-charged growth but very low retail inflation.

The release was one more illustration of the conundrum the Reserve Bank was facing and supported Westpac's view the prospect of official cash rate cuts later this year remained uncertain.

''We were primed for the drop in retail prices but the value of spending was even stronger than we had expected. One consequence could be an upgrade to our GDP forecast.''

 


At a glance

• First-quarter sales were strong, coming in above expectations.

• The Cricket World Cup and low petrol prices may have temporarily boosted spending, but underlying spending is also strong.

• For the first time in almost 10 years, every industry lifted in the quarter.

• Doubt about when the Reserve Bank will cut its official cash rate.


 

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