Beef underpins 8% gain in exports

Beef prices and production have offset weaker export returns for lamb (pictured). Photo by...
Beef prices and production have offset weaker export returns for lamb (pictured). Photo by Stephen Jaquiery.
High beef prices and strong New Zealand production have driven an expected 8% rise in meat and wool sector revenue in the year to June.

That would more than offset weaker returns for sheep meat, venison and some co-products, the latest Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries report said.

Export prices for beef had been very high, due to strong US demand, and total export earnings were expected to be up 30% in the year to June to $2.86billion.

Those high prices were expected to be ''broadly maintained'' over the next 12 to 18 months, then decline gradually through to 2019.

Export volumes from New Zealand had been strong, aided by a combination of drought and a low dairy milk price which led to an earlier and more prolonged dairy cow cull than normal.

Lamb export revenue for the year to June was expected to be largely similar to that of a year ago at $2.49 billion.

Drought in parts of New Zealand had lowered export volume forecasts, and subdued trading conditions in key markets had lowered price expectations in the second half of the year.

Demand for sheep meat from key markets had slowed. Chinese import demand had not met expectations this year, as strong 2014 prices induced higher domestic production.

That was weighing on prices in all markets for mutton and the mid to lower value frozen lamb cuts, the report said.

Mutton exports for the year to date had been very weak in terms of both volume and price.

Lamb production for 2016 was forecast to fall a further 2.2% compared with 2015. Export prices were expected to strengthen in 2016 and beyond, reflecting a combination of a depreciating dollar, recovering demand in China and lower supply expected from Australia.

Sheep meat production in the United Kingdom was forecast to increase 6% in 2015 which could undermine price increases.

Wool prices had risen over the last year, led by lamb's wool which peaked about 30% above 2014 levels.

Prices for other wool styles had largely been maintained, except for fine merino wool which had suffered from weak European demand.

Total export revenue from wool products in the year to June 2015 was forecast at $935million, a 5% increase. Steady growth was expected over the outlook period.

The New Zealand deer herd had been declining at an annual rate of 3.7% since 2009, a trend that was expected to continue as deer breeders left the industry.

The Passion 2 Profit programme was aimed at improving returns for deer farmers, which might stop the decline of the deer herd.

Export revenue from venison in the year to June 2015 was forecast at $174 million, a decrease of $13 million on the previous year, and further declines were projected out to 2019.

Velvet prices had reached very high levels this year, going some way to alleviate the below average returns at the farm gate for venison.

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