No Australian cut expected

Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks during a news conference at the bank's headquarters...
Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks during a news conference at the bank's headquarters in Tokyo last month. Photo by Reuters.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is not expected to cut its official lending rate at its meeting this afternoon but speculation is mounting over future moves.

Markets are pricing in a 93% chance of no change, with most economists in agreement. Craigs Investment Partners broker Chris Timms said speculation was mounting there might be some RBA rate cut action at the November 3 meeting.

''A Melbourne Cup Day rate cut might ultimately be influenced by September-quarter inflation numbers due for release on October 28.

''Nonetheless, this week we should still get a few hints as to the Reserve Bank's thinking with updated staff forecasts due that might show further downgrades to inflation and growth expectations for next year.''

The growth outlook for Australia's key trading partners had worsened in the last few months and calls from economists for a RBA response were growing, he said.

The ANZ suggested the Australian cash rate needed to go to 1.5%.

The Bank of Japan and the Bank of England are also scheduled to make rate announcements this week.

ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley rated the risk of an RBA rate cut this week as minuscule.

The Bank of Japan's rate announcement was the key event tomorrow.

Japan was on the brink of recession. However, it did not seem to dent governor Haruhiko Kuroda's confidence of meeting his 2% inflation target.

Mr Kuroda was emphasising consumer price inflation (CPI), excluding energy prices, which had accelerated to about 1%.

''Given his comments, we doubt Kuroda will announce more policy stimulus at this meeting.''

The next Bank of Japan meeting on October 30 was more likely for a policy change because board members updated their economic and inflation forecasts.

The Bank of England was expected to announce on Thursday its interest rate was staying on hold - the minutes would reveal another eight-one vote against a rate hike, Mr Tuffley said.

Governor Mark Carney recently indicated he thought the direct impact from the emerging market slowdown on the United Kingdom would be minimal.

The week ends with the United States Federal Reserve meeting minutes being released on Friday.

 


Central lending rates

New Zealand                 2.75%

Australia                        2%

Bank of Japan                0.1%

Bank of England            0.5%

US Federal Reserve       0.25% 


 

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